The U.S. is fighting a war, which means that after 15 days, it’s already lost or, at minimum, a hopeless quagmire. Can you imagine FDR having to endure the press declaring the war a failure after a few days?
One major war aim announced by Donald Trump has fallen by the wayside: regime change isn’t going to happen. The president will not commit a large number of American combat troops that would be essential to overthrow the clerical fascist regime. The Iranian people will not rise up en masse after hearing that 30,000 of their countrymen in the streets demonstrating in January were mowed down by fanatics.
The more realistic goal of finishing the job of destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities and ballistic missile production is well on is way to being achieved. To forestall those goals from being reached, Iran has decided to ratchet up pressure on the U.S. by virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows.
The strategy is akin to a “Hail Mary” pass in football. In truth, Iran cannot close the strait for long, something the Trump administration believed argued against their closing the strait at all. Iran is totally reliant on importing gasoline, given they allowed their refineries and pipelines to fall into disrepair. Up to 90% of the fuel also passes through the strait, making its closure a race against time.
Will the Iranian Revolutionary Guards run out of fuel before the U.S. and Israel give up?
If the closure lasts much longer, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ vehicles will run out of fuel. The clock is ticking, and the men controlling Mojtaba’s avatar simply hope Washington will kneecap itself with a vortex of panic and political warfare rather than assess the facts objectively.
Iran has a limited number of ports, even including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ “invisible jetties.” Iranian docks, jetties, and ships are fair targets. Just as the war has depleted the regime’s missiles and drones, it should now destroy its speedboat fleet, a task in the 21st century for drones.
“U.S. authorities should clear every island in the Persian Gulf from which the regime targets shipping,” writes Middle East Forum’s Michael Rubin. “This means not only the three disputed islands—Abu Musa, Greater Tonb, and Lesser Tonb—but also Farsi Island from which the regime once seized U.S. sailors, Sirri; and Hengam, Larak, and Hormuz, islands which control the sea lanes off the more populated Qeshm Island.”
While Trump opposes boots on the ground, occupying most of those islands would prevent the IRGC from launching drones at shipping. A couple of special forces teams should be capable of carrying out that mission, says Rubin.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a problem, but not one that is either permanent or on the same level as the Islamic Republic’s nuclear, missile, and drone program, or its support for proxies.
America in the age of TikTok is prone to political panic. Some senators might want to score points, but Trump should focus on the long game.
Just like those who criticized the arrest of Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega or objected to the liberation of Kuwait, those who seek to cave to Iranian extortion will find their statements and reputations do not age well.
According to Trump opponents, this war had no purpose and no reason, would lead to a wider conflict, and is illegal to boot. Support the troops, support the nation, and wait for the dust to clear before claiming history’s verdict.
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