Gov. Ron DeSantis’ plan to reshape Florida’s congressional map ahead of midterm elections gives the state a “unique opportunity” to augment the Republican majority in Congress, Florida GOP operatives tell The Daily Signal.
“Florida will 1,000% play a role in this redistricting fight,” a prominent Florida Republican said. “It’s just going to be a matter of how many seats and what that looks like. South Florida will be an area that will not look the same in 2026 as it did in previous elections.”
President Donald Trump has urged Republican majority legislatures to rework their Congressional maps ahead of midterms. Though Trump has not yet commented on Florida redistricting, DeSantis called for a special legislative session next spring for lawmakers to reshape the congressional map. Republicans believe the effort will give the party an additional three to five seats in Congress.
The Florida GOP successfully redistricted in 2022, giving the party four additional House seats. The prominent Republican believes the state’s effort to draft an aggressive map is the reason Republicans hold the majority in Congress today.
Now, Republicans have a chance to do it again.
The question is not a matter of if to redistrict, but when, another GOP operative told The Daily Signal.
“Florida wants to redistrict,” the operative said. “It’s just about when.”
Redistricting is important in Florida because the current map likely violates the U.S. Constitution, according to the president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, Adam Kincaid. The Florida legislature needs to rework District 20, Kincaid said, a “bizarrely shaped claw of a district” including areas of Broward and Palm Beach County.
According to Kincaid, District 20 was designed to be a majority black seat, though the Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that racial gerrymandering violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.
“Nationally, I think it’s a good thing when a state like Florida looks at its map and says, this district is not in compliance,” Kincaid told The Daily Signal. “It’s pretty clear that some of the districts in Florida, especially south Florida, are problematic and need to be remedied.”
If the legislature reworks District 20, a lot of other South Florida districts will have to be revisited as well, Kincaid said.
“The map is not as compact as it could be,” he said. “It splits more cities and counties than it probably needs to, and a compact map in Florida would be probably a better map for Republicans, just because the current map is potentially gerrymandered, especially in South Florida, in a way that probably violates United States Constitution.”
The prominent Florida Republican expressed confidence that the president will weigh in on the redistricting fight. Two of the most senior people in the White House, chief of staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief of staff James Blair, and Trump himself, are Florida residents.
Although DeSantis has called for a special session on redistricting next spring, many Republican state lawmakers want to deal with it earlier in the regular session.
The state Senate has agreed to DeSantis’ wishes, but the state House’s Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting has gone forward with holding meetings on the matter.
“There are some that just believe, ‘Hey, get the work done. Don’t start the work so late. Do the work and then shift, but don’t just start the work so late,’” a GOP operative said. “Because if you wait for the court case and then get started, you’re just delaying the timeline.”
DeSantis argues that if the legislature waits until a special session, an impending Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana will force Florida to redistrict “because the Supreme Court’s VRA [Voting Rights Act] decision is going to impact the current map.”
The so-called Fair Districts measure, adopted by Florida voters in 2010, makes it illegal to draw legislative and congressional districts for partisan gain or to help incumbents. But DeSantis is hopeful that the Supreme Court’s ruling on redistricting in Louisiana will lay the groundwork for increasing the Sunshine State’s representation in Congress.
If the high court rules that states can’t consider race when drawing district lines, it would “necessitate new congressional redistricting” in Florida, according to DeSantis, particularly in South Florida where racial gerrymandering is suspected.
The prominent Florida Republican said redistricting is both a matter of when and how. DeSantis is known to have a tense relationship with members of the state legislature, including the Florida speaker of the House.
But “when push comes to shove, all parties will agree that we have to do something,” the prominent Republican said.
