Sen. Thom Tillis announced Sunday that he would not be seeking reelection, just one day after President Donald Trump threatened to support a primary challenger against the North Carolina Republican owing to his vote against proceeding with the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.
There could be major implications for Republicans—with a possibility of losing the maverick centrist senator’s North Carolina seat in 2026.
Tillis’ announcement came after Trump was enraged by his vote against a motion to proceed on the 10-year fiscal package.
“Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the primary against Senator Thom Tillis,” Trump wrote Saturday night.
“I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks, looking for someone who will properly represent the Great People of North Carolina and, so importantly, the United States of America.”
Tillis voted against proceeding with the bill because of his opposition to lowering the provider tax, a tool states use to compel the federal government to provide more funding for Medicaid.
The next day, Tillis lamented “political theatre and partisan gridlock” as he announced his intent to retire at the end of his term late next year.
Tillis has been willing to cooperate with Democrats in the past, lending his support to “red flag” gun control laws and the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified federal recognition of same-sex marriage.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Sunday that the announcement was a long time coming.
“It’s unfortunate, and it’s something he’s been thinking about for a while, and he just finally decided that was the best decision for him and his family,” said Thune.
Tillis’ departure is emblematic of a larger trend within the Republican Party as centrists become more rare and others coalesce around Trump.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., who has not been shy about criticizing Trump on occasion, also announced over the weekend that he would not be seeking reelection in his purple swing-district in 2026.
A Political Earthquake
Now, Republicans have to worry about the consequences of losing Tillis in North Carolina, a key swing state where he has strong name recognition from his years as speaker of the state House of Representatives before becoming a U.S. senator.
Tillis already had his operation up and running, having hired longtime Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio for the campaign, which Cook Political Report has just shifted from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” in its projections.
That could spell trouble, as Democrats are also eyeing Senate pickup opportunities in Maine and Texas in 2026.
Who Might Run in Tillis’ Place?
A few names have been floated already in Washington media regarding would-be Tillis successors.
For example, anonymous sources have told both NBC News and NOTUS that Lara Trump, a native North Carolinian married to the president’s son Eric Trump, is considering a run for the soon-to-be vacant seat.
Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, is also being considered as a potential successor to Tillis, an anonymous source told Politico.
Republicans also have 10 representatives from North Carolina in the House that they could choose from as candidates for the Senate race.
One of them, Virginia Foxx, is 82 years old and recently became chairwoman of the House Rules Committee, so she is an unlikely candidate.
However, The Wall Street Journal suggests that a number of North Carolina representatives are eyeing Tillis’ seat.
“Rep. Greg Murphy is seriously considering running for Senate in 2026, and Reps. Richard Hudson, Pat Harrigan, and Tim Moore are also eyeing a run, according to people familiar with the matter,” it reported.
None of the offices of the representatives mentioned by The Wall Street Journal immediately responded to requests for comment.
A Rogue Tillis?
A danger at the moment is the fact that Tillis, who’s bucked the party line before, has nothing to lose anymore.
Tillis took to the Senate floor shortly after announcing his resignation, where he called for a moderation of the big, beautiful bill’s Medicaid reforms and accused members of the White House of misinforming Trump on the impact of lowering the provider tax.
Sporting an ultra-casual look of a polo shirt and bolo tie, he went all out in alleging that the administration was falling short of Trump’s promises to focus on waste, fraud, and abuse in health care and to not deprive deserving Americans of Medicaid benefits.
“Republicans are about to make a mistake on health care and betraying a promise,” he implored. “It is inescapable that this bill, in its current form, will betray the very promise that Donald Trump made.”
He then accused “amateurs” in the White House of misinforming the president on the impact of the bill.
Given Tillis’ anger with Congress’ approach and now his immunity to threats of a primary challenge, it will likely be difficult to push him around over the remaining year-and-a-half of his tenure.
Tillis has already played a part in shaping the agenda in the new term, most notably when his opposition to Ed Martin as U.S. attorney for D.C. preceded the withdrawal of Martin’s nomination.
