Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is in serious danger of becoming a one-term governor, according to a new poll.
An Emerson College survey released Friday shows Hobbs polling in a statistical tie with two of the three Republican contenders running in Arizona’s 2026 gubernatorial race. In addition, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is the clear Republican favorite to advance to the general election against Hobbs, according to the poll.
In a hypothetical matchup between Biggs and Hobbs, the incumbent took 44 percent support while Biggs received 43 percent, a difference well within the poll’s margin of error. Thirteen percent of participants said they are undecided, according to the survey.
Republican businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson polled 42 percent support compared with Hobbs’ 43 percent, according to the same poll. Fifteen percent of the survey’s respondents said they were undecided on who to support in the hypothetical matchup. Robson previously ran for Arizona governor in 2022 but narrowly lost the primary election to former TV news anchor Kari Lake.
President Donald Trump has endorsed both Biggs and Taylor Robson in Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Biggs was also notably endorsed by slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, who lived in Arizona at the time of his Sept. 10 assassination.
In a hypothetical matchup between Hobbs and Republican Arizona Rep. David Schweikert, Hobbs carried a slightly larger lead with 44 percent support compared to Schweikert’s 40 percent — just outside of the poll’s margin of error. Sixteen percent of survey respondents indicated they were undecided.
Biggs dominated the GOP primary field at 50 percent, easily overtaking Robson at 17 percent and Schweikert at 8 percent, per the poll. One in four of those surveyed said they are undecided on which candidate to support in the primary contest.
“Heading into 2026, Rep. Biggs is the early favorite for the Republican Nomination for Governor,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Biggs holds 59% support among voters over 60 and 51% among those who backed Trump in 2024.”
“The trend lines are clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are rallying behind our campaign because we’re focusing on the issues that matter and we can beat Katie Hobbs in 2026,” Biggs told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “Arizonans of all backgrounds are frustrated with our state’s rising energy costs, anemic job growth, and the challenges of buying an affordable home, which are all problems directly tied to Katie Hobbs’ progressive policies and partisan vetoes.”
“I have the experience and vision to lead our state back to prosperity from Day One as Governor and ensure that every Arizonan can attain the American Dream of a safe neighborhood, a steady job, and an affordable home. We’ll keep working to share our message in every corner of our state and make sure we fire Katie Hobbs in 2026,” the conservative lawmaker’s statement added.
Trump won Arizona by more than five percentage points in 2024, and Hobbs’ current job approval rating sits underwater at 39 percent with a disapproval rating of 40 percent, according to the Emerson College poll.
Hobbs has been dogged by controversy ever since her razor-thin election in 2022. Her office threatened Mohave County Supervisors with arrest and prosecution if they were unable to certify election results ahead of the deadline, despite the county requesting more time before finalizing results.
A campaign finance scandal which broke in 2024 rocked the governor’s administration. In November 2022, just after the gubernatorial election, Hobbs allegedly took a massive donation from a group home for foster children in exchange for ordering the Department of Child Safety to increase the home’s daily pay rate, far surpassing the average pay rate for other group homes.
The deal led to a criminal investigation with Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope describing the situation as a “pay-to-play scheme.” Arizona Senate Republicans widely condemned the scandal, calling it a “disgusting abuse of taxpayer dollars.”
Gov. Katie Hobbs is getting money from special interests and other donors and not disclosing who they are.
And it’s perfectly legal because of an exception carved into state law nearly a decade ago.https://t.co/XLqCt7wkW2
— AZ Capitol Times (State Affairs Arizona) (@AzCapitolTimes) May 13, 2025
The Arizona Capitol Times in May dove through the governor’s legal donations, finding the Democrat was not disclosing who her donors were although they were funneling her money in special interest cases. The state’s largest public utility company reportedly gave $100,000 to a legal fund to help defend Hobbs against a lawsuit from Lake, her 2022 opponent whom she defeated by about 17,000 votes.
Hobbs’, Robson’s, and Schweikert’s campaign offices did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
The Emerson College poll of 850 active registered voters was conducted Nov. 8-10, 2025, and had a 3.3 percent margin of error.
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