Solving America’s illegal immigration crisis didn’t require amnesty — just better leadership.
Last week, the Center for Immigration Studies released a study showing America’s foreign-born population dropped by 2.2 million from January to July. While the number of naturalized U.S. citizens increased, there was a staggering 1.6 million-person drop among illegal immigrants. CIS estimated that this represented a 10% decline in the country’s illegal immigrant population.
While determining the number of illegal immigrants always requires estimation, this drop is supported by anecdotal evidence.
“Nurse in US for 40 years self-deports,” a recent Newsweek headline reads.
“Lansing man self deporting to Kenya after 16 years in America,” WILX, a Michigan TV station, recently reported.
In April, the LA Times wrote, “More immigrants opt to self-deport rather than risk being marched out like criminals.”
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem says that some foreign leaders have also told her this is happening.
“Over and over again, I’m hearing that hundreds of thousands of their citizens are coming home, voluntarily,” she said.
For decades, many Democrats and some Republicans have presented amnesty as the only way to solve the country’s broken immigration system. The Trump administration has taken a lot of flak for trying a different approach. It’s offering $1,000 to illegal immigrants who leave voluntarily. It’s fining illegal immigrants who stay, ramping up arrests and sending some illegals to third countries or Alligator Alcatraz. Like everyone else, illegal immigrants respond to incentives. This mix of carrots and sticks is working. The Trump administration has also closed the southern border.
A decrease in illegal immigration is great news for most Americans. It will increase wages for low-skill Americans. It will put downward pressure on housing prices. It will reduce crime. It will lower the amount of money Americans spend supporting illegal immigrants.
But it’s terrible news for the Democrat Party — especially if this drop continues. If the country didn’t have any illegal immigrants, Democrats would have less political power.
That’s not a claim about illegal immigrants voting in elections, although that does happen. It’s about the census. Every 10 years, the federal government counts how many people are living in the country. Congressional seats are divvied out to states based on those population numbers, which includes both legal and illegal immigrants.
In other words, states with large numbers of illegal immigrants receive extra Congressional seats — and Electoral College votes. That list includes blue states like California and New York, but also red states like Florida and Texas. Evidence suggests blue states benefit more from this than red states.
Another advantage comes in the making of Congressional and legislative districts, which are supposed to have a similar number of people. Note: That’s a similar number of residents, not citizens. Illegal immigrants tend to congregate in blue cities. This allows the creation of more districts in deep blue areas. This is one reason that Republican districts in Nevada tend to have more registered voters.
It’s unlikely that President Donald Trump’s new census excluding illegals will happen anytime soon, but if it did, Democrats would be in significant trouble.
Democrats’ desperate fight against Trump’s deportation efforts has a downside. The New York Times recently interviewed swing voters, including Desmond Smith, a young black man from Mississippi. He backed former President Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Asked how Democrats could appeal to him, he said, “Fight for Americans instead of fighting for everybody else.”
That should be a no-brainer, but for the reasons described above, it’s a tough option for Democrats.
Trump keeps winning on immigration policy and immigration politics.
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