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Democrats are experiencing a significant surge in political momentum one year after President Trump and Republicans secured complete control of Washington. Recent polling data reveals a dramatic shift in voter sentiment, with Democrats now holding a commanding 55% to 41% lead over Republicans in generic congressional matchups, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist survey. This represents the largest Democratic advantage since 2017, a stark contrast to the evenly split 48% showing from a year earlier.
President Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted from 47% at the beginning of his term to just 38%, while his disapproval rating has surged from 41% to 60%, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. The Marist poll shows 57% of voters disapprove of his job performance, with nearly half expressing strong disapproval. His support base remains concentrated among rural, white voters without college degrees, men, and evangelical Christians.
These polling numbers follow a series of Democratic electoral victories, including gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey, passage of California’s Proposition 50 redistricting measure, and gains in down-ballot races across Virginia’s Legislature and Georgia’s Public Service Commission. Democrats interpret these results as voter backlash against affordability issues and a rejection of Trump-era policies.
The controversy surrounding Jeffrey Epstein files has further damaged Trump’s standing, with 59% of voters disagreeing with his handling of the matter, which he initially dismissed as a Democratic hoax before relenting. Congress ultimately pushed through legislation for the release of government files related to the convicted sex trafficker despite Trump’s initial objections.
Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, with 67% identifying lowering costs as their top issue. Immigration, crime, the Ukraine war, Gaza peace efforts, and Latin American drug trafficking trail considerably behind.
Republicans are attempting to protect their slim House majority through congressional redistricting efforts.
Texas enacted a new map potentially yielding five additional Republican seats, but a federal court blocked it, citing discrimination against voters of color. Similar GOP redistricting initiatives in Kansas and Indiana have stalled, giving Democrats the advantage in redistricting battles that Trump had demanded.
Democrats view these developments as validation of their affordability-focused messaging and potential evidence of buyer’s remorse among Trump voters, hoping this momentum carries into the midterm elections.
Read more: Democrats see signs of a comeback — from polls to ballot boxes
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