It’s always dangerous to make predictions, especially predictions about the state of US politics a year from now. Literally anything could happen between now and then that would totally change the trajectory the country is on.
And yet, I think there are some fundamental things that tend to be true all the time. One of those is that elections are often won and lost based on a quick assessment of who is going to make life better for the voters. Specifically, it often comes down to a sense of who is going to make the economy grow and bring costs down. If you can do those things (or at least make a plausible case) you have a chance of winning.
There are a lot of loose threads out there at the moment in our politics and I’m going to try to connect a few of them into a simple prediction: Republicans have a little less than a year to improve the economic situation or they are going to lose the House next November. That’s my best guess and here’s what I’m basing it on.
Let’s start with this. Jeff Blehar has a solid article up at National Review connecting some of these dots. He opens with the ongoing drama on the right which pits Ben Shapiro and others against Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes and others.
Perhaps you have noticed that in recent weeks, significant portions of the institutional right have gotten onto the “doom beat,” pounding the drums urgently about the looming threat posed to the Republican Party’s future by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, and the “Groypers” — more accurately described as the disproportionate number of policy-oriented young men in current Washington politics who dabble at least a foot (and sometimes wade hip-deep) into the toxic waters of antisemitic nihilism. They are right to be concerned…
…there is a reason — more than a mere ephemeral “youth revolt” — why every conservative (or liberal) value seems like it’s on the chopping block nowadays for Zoomers: as far as many of them are concerned, they aren’t working anymore…
The Groypers are merely one instantiation of an oceanic atmosphere of discontent and disintegration among the Zoomer generation writ large; when that angle is channeled through progressive sensibilities, you get Mamdani’s shocking performance among young and newer New York City dwellers, or even the unexpected (and underreported) likely toppling of Seattle’s mayor. These people cannot pay their bills, cannot save, see all of their expected career paths being swiftly foreclosed on, and have little optimism about the future.
In short, young people are feeling a sense of despair. And that despair is in search of some improvement in their lot in life. It could be Trump who campaigned on bringing back America’s vitality and manufacturing. It could be Mamdani, who campaigned on rent freezes and free child care. The issue here isn’t ideological so much as it it is a desire to see things improve.
Last week, Peter Thiel made some comments about Mamdani’s success which seem relevant here:
If you graduated in 1970 with no student debt, compare that to the millennial experience: too many people go to college, they don’t learn anything, and they end up with incredibly burdensome debt. Student debt is a version of this generational conflict that I’ve talked about for a long time…
It’s extremely difficult these days for young people to become homeowners. If you have extremely strict zoning laws and restrictions on building more housing, it’s good for the boomers, whose properties keep going up in value, and terrible for the millennials. If you proletarianize the young people, you shouldn’t be surprised if they eventually become communist.
And you could also say, if you treat young people like patriarchal white supremacists, you shouldn’t be surprised when some of them start listening to Nick Fuentes. There is some ideology here but it’s arising out a deeper despair. For young people, things look bleak and they need some way to make sense of it. At present the options striving for their attention are the Nick Fuentes/Andrew Tate fringe on the right or the AOC/Mamdani fringe on the left. Both sides are telling people the problems aren’t your fault. Both sides are saying the problems are the result of corrupt people and systems that need to be broken down.
In my view, whichever side of this argument wins, Americans will lose. So the question becomes this: Is there anyone who isn”t a neo-Nazi or a communist offering to solve the underlying economic problems young people are facing? Because I think it’s possible those young voters will latch on to anything that promises an improvement. If enough of them side with the GOP, the GOP is likely to retain control of congress. If more of them side with the left, Democrats are more likely to win back the House.
Here I should say that there is a difference between talking a good game and actually doing something. Mamdani really did talk a good game but, at the end of the day, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to deliver on any of his promises. House Dems could offer a bunch of similar nonsense. In fact, they already have.
Let’s throw another log on this fire. Having tried to connect the GOP internal drama and the Mamdani victory to this broader story about desperate voters and the economy, let’s also look at the government shutdown. The shutdown was ostensibly launched by Dems to force Republicans to do something about Obamacare rates. Now, in reality, there were other reasons Democrats wanted to do this. It helped keep them in the spotlight. It created an issue they could use in the midterms. Etc.
But if you think about it, the Dems are just touching on the same issue: Affordability. It’s not health care per se that is working for them, it’s the fact that health care is expensive. They are connecting that expense (and the fear of rising costs) to Republicans while offering a Mamdani-esque solution, i.e. just have the government pay to extend the subsidies.
And you could keep going with incidents large and small that connect back to this same issue. It’s why left-wing outlets made such a big deal about a 1920s themed Halloween party at the White House recently. The right didn’t care about that much. It was just a party. But the left saw an opportunity to present the Trump White House as existing in a gilded age separated from concerns about…affordability.
And Elon Musk’s pay package which passed recently. Again, many on the right (myself included) saw this as a company making a decision that would only pay Musk if Tesla becomes the largest company in the world (by a lot). But on the left this was another sign that the GOP elite don’t live in the real world.
The point is that this is the playing field we’re on. Affordability is the issue that seems to matter and probably will determine the outcome of the midterms. Democrats certainly believe that.
The good news is that I think Trump instinctively gets what is happening as well. After the terrible election results last week, he immediately pivoted to affordability.
In the wake of last week’s bruising off-year elections that underscored just how vulnerable the GOP is heading into 2026, Trump has announced a bevy of policies that may ease the pressure on household budgets.
He’s announced a plan to send low- and middle-income Americans $2,000 checks funded by new tariff revenue, asked the Justice Department to investigate whether meatpacking companies are colluding to raise beef prices and, at an event flanked by pharmaceutical executives, announced a deal to lower the price of increasingly popular weight-loss drugs.
He’s also suggested sending money to Americans directly to help them purchase health insurance and floated a proposal pushed by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte to establish 50-year mortgages, which could lower homeowners’ monthly payments.
All of these are smart moves and I think necessary ones if the GOP wants to avoid a blue wave. But this is going to be an extended fight. Trump lowered drug prices. Democrats are demanding a vote on lowering Obamacare premiums. Everyone in national politics seems to understand the winner will be the party or person who claims to have done the most about affordability.
The really good news is that Trump and the Republicans are in a position to actually do something about it before the elections. Democrats are not. All they can do is make promises and stage stunts like the shutdown because they don’t control any aspect of the government. But Trump and congress could make this a focus for the next six months and actually make a credible case that they are what these voters were looking for.
Again, I think Trump gets it, but I hope Speaker Johnson and Sen. Thune get it as well. If the GOP moves quickly, they can win this battle. If they don’t then a lot of voters could decide to pull the lever for the Dems because a) the GOP isn’t taking action on the thing they care about and b) the Dems are at least talking about it.
So what should Trump do? For one, refuse to cede the ground. Start talking about this at every opportunity to match the Dems’ focus and then actually make some inroads on building more housing and reducing regulations. I get that Trump does not want to rescue Obamacare but he may need to do something about heath care beyond what he’s already done on drug prices.
If he can focus on this, I’d bet his edge on the Who should handle the economy? question will return. If the GOP doesn’t focus on this, then I think Trump’s last two years will be a legislative stalemate and endless investigations led by House Dems. This strategy certainly worked for them before to blunt Trump’s impact in his first term.
As I said, anything could happen in the next year. All of this might look very different a month from now if there is a terrorist attack or more political violence. But at this moment it does seem like the die has been cast for 2026 and affordability is going to be the flag flown by the winner.
Editor’s Note: After more than 40 days of screwing Americans, a few Dems have finally caved. The Schumer Shutdown was never about principle—just inflicting pain for political points.
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