The Chinese Communist Party and its military forces are preparing the entire country for a future war with the United States over Taiwan, the hot spots in the South China Sea or disputed territory near Japan, according to a new report by a congressional China commission.
The 728-page annual report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission also warns that the U.S. and allied effort to counter Chinese communist expansion and replacement of the U.S.-led democratic system is an urgent problem.
“Countering China’s aggression is now a truly global challenge,” the report said.
China’s large-scale military modernization advanced significantly and was not affected by extensive purges of key military leaders, the report said.
Over the past year, increases took place in nuclear warhead stockpiles, new amphibious warships, deployment of more advanced stealth fighter jets and greater fielding of drone weapons, the report said.
The military modernization has strengthened the People’s Liberation Army’s capabilities for launching an attack on Taiwan, the report states.
“China has continued to rapidly advance its capabilities to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan,” said the report, noting intensified PLA operations near Taiwan and deployment of new forces for an amphibious attack.
The operations “have made it so that the PLA could pivot from a routine exercise to an actual blockade or invasion with almost no advance warning.”
An alarming indicator of a potential conflict with China was disclosed in what the report called a divergence between Chinese and English language propaganda on Taiwan.
Chinese statements sent to international audiences downplayed the prospect of a Taiwan invasion.
Contrary to that, Chinese domestic propaganda has stated that “provocations” by Taiwan could justify military action in the near future.
The split “suggests Beijing may be taking initial steps to prepare its people for the possibility of war,” the report said.
“While there is no indication that China is planning an imminent invasion — and Beijing still hopes to pressure Taiwan to surrender without a fight — the United States and its allies and partners can no longer assume that a Taiwan contingency is a distant possibility for which they would have ample time to prepare,” the report said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready for military action by 2027. In May, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait “could be imminent” and would be devastating for the region and the world.
China also toughened its rhetoric against the U.S. in an official white paper that accused Washington of violating its “right to develop” through tariffs and sanctions and a U.S. alliance system that Beijing said is interfering in China’s internal affairs, the report said.
The critical report has been released as President Trump and his administration engage in trade talks with China, aiming to smooth over differences and stabilize ties.
Mr. Trump said on Truth Social this month that his recent meeting with Mr. Xi, whom he called “a friend of mine,” was a victory. China relented on curbing rare earth mineral exports and agreed to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans.
“This was a Big Victory for the U.S.A. and, indeed, the World!” he said. “Also, it was a wonderful outcome for China, and the fact that these two Major Powers left the meeting, as it began, with an excellent relationship, and specific plans for future talks and meetings.”
Cast in unusually blunt language, the bipartisan commission report warns that Beijing is systematically expanding its power and influence around the world in seeking global dominance with the goal of replacing the U.S.-led democratic and free market order.
The study said that if Beijing is successful, “a China-dominated world order would be less stable, less secure, less prosperous and less free.”
“Such an order would be defined by weaponized interdependence, state surveillance and coercive control over global norms,” the report said.
“It will be incumbent upon the United States to counter Beijing’s bid for hegemony with a positive vision for the future that promotes prosperity, security and freedom at home and around the world.”
To effectively counter the challenge, the United States must use defensive actions and an assertive, proactive strategy to rebuild American industrial strength, promote international rules and form coalitions that will counter Chinese ambitions, the report said.
“Over the past year, China has sought to present itself as a responsible world leader despite engaging in a range of destabilizing activities that have undermined global peace and security,” the report said.
On Taiwan, the report said the world is in a crucial phase of Beijing’s long-standing bid to impose sovereignty over the island democracy.
Randall Schriver, commission vice chairman and a former Pentagon and State Department official, said the danger of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is increasing.
Mr. Schriver said Mr. Xi has declared that China’s “great rejuvenation” must be completed by 2049 and that annexing Taiwan is a key element.
On 2027, the date given to the PLA to be ready to attack, Mr. Schriver said China’s goal is “more a statement of capability than an actual go date.”
The date does not indicate that the PLA will carry out an invasion or blockade, with a blockade being launched without warning, he said.
“On the question about an attack and warning time, we’re losing warning time,” said Mr. Schriver, noting that the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Paparo, has described PLA activities around Taiwan as appearing “not so much like exercising as it does rehearsal.”
“I think what he means by that is these aren’t just moves to exert pressure and have presence to make a point,” Mr. Schriver told reporters at a press conference.
“They’re actually rehearsing certain aspects of amphibious invasion, communication links, logistics support, etc., so that all decreases warning time significantly if they choose to take the step of going from coercion to actual attack.”
China is also engaged in provocative military, economic and influence operations short of war against Taiwan, the Philippines in the South China Sea and against Japan near the Senkaku Islands, the report said.
Beyond Taiwan, the report stated that China is bolstering military forces for combat in all domains of warfare in preparation to defeat “strong enemies” — code for the United States, the report said.
One key area of enhanced warfighting highlighted in the report is the PLA’s rapid expansion of space warfare capabilities that could be used against American forces in the Indo-Pacific through satellite attacks.
“Beijing’s investment in counterspace systems — including direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons and co-orbital interference platforms —illustrates its strategy of blinding and disorienting U.S. forces in the opening phase of a conflict,” the report said.
The PLA is using significant resources to develop technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing for use by China’s military and intelligence services.
Globally, China is deepening cooperation with Russia, Iran and North Korea, which has allowed “pariah economies” to survive international economic restrictions, the report said.
The cooperation is undermining U.S. statecraft and providing China with a live testbed for sanctions evasion and wartime logistics, the report said.
Working with rogue states also provides China with a network of supporters in a military crisis. The support could include technology transfer, diversional regional actions, economic and energy lifelines, and undermining U.S. and allied deterrence, the report said.
The report includes extensive new details on the PLA’s forces and capabilities, which are rapidly gaining strength and reach.
“We’re very clear-eyed about China’s growing capabilities,” Mr. Schriver said. “They’re advancing military capabilities very rapidly, including the introduction of new capabilities such as self-propelled landing barges, the world’s largest amphibious ship and hypersonic missiles that could target U.S. forward-deployed forces,” he said.
Inside China, the report states that despite economic problems, China stepped up a multiyear anti-corruption campaign that is a cover for CCP efforts to quash internal dissent and crack down on religious institutions that the government says are promoting separatism and undermining party rule.
The CCP is using what it regards as the current “turbulent” international environment to justify greater repression and control and to enforce “absolute political loyalty” for the 93 million members of the ruling party, the report said.
To support that goal, spending on domestic security and controls has increased sharply and greater numbers of officials and military leaders were purged over perceived insufficient loyalty, the report said.
“Considered in the aggregate, these actions reflect Beijing’s continued rapid preparations for the possibility of conflict and its systematic efforts to erode U.S. deterrence across the military, economic, technological, cyber, and diplomatic domains,” the report said.
China also has been “weaponizing” control of supply chains to advance CCP strategic interests, said the report, noting intensified controls in the past five years.
“China has already deployed export controls on critical minerals as a coercive tool, including to seek policy concessions in trade negotiations with the United States and to punish other countries,” said the report, noting critical minerals are among several sectors where the U.S. is reliant on Chinese sources.
