A pair of newly released polls showed former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo cutting his double-digit deficit nearly in half against Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s closely watched mayoral race.
The polls from Boston’s Suffolk University and Connecticut’s Quinnipiac University both showed Mr. Mamdani leading Mr. Cuomo by 10 percentage points. The Suffolk poll showed Mr. Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, with a 44%-34% lead, while Quinnipiac had Mr. Mamdani ahead of Mr. Cuomo by 43%-33%.
Comparatively, Mr. Mamdani led Mr. Cuomo by 20 points in Suffolk’s last poll, on Sept. 23, and by 13 points in Quinnipiac’s previous poll, on Oct. 3.
Both of the new polls sampled likely voters in the race and had margins of error at 4.4% and 4%, respectively. That suggested a statistically significant gain for Mr. Cuomo based on the RealClearPolitics polling average, which has Mr. Mamdani enjoying a 15.1% advantage in the race.
A key factor in the mayoral mix is Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who has been steadfast in his refusal to drop out with less than a week remaining.
Mr. Sliwa garnered 14% in the Quinnipiac poll, with another 6% undecided. In the Suffolk poll, he received 11%, with another 11% either undecided, refusing to respond or preferring another third-party alternative.
“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Senator Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa.”
Combined, the latest polls spanned a period from Thursday, Oct. 23 to Monday, with the Suffolk poll running through Sunday.
Several key events in the campaign transpired during that period, including New York Mayor Eric Adams’ endorsement of Mr. Cuomo, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ endorsement of Mr. Mamdani and a scandal surrounding Mr. Mamdani’s debunked claim that his aunt had been victimized by anti-Muslim sentiment after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Mr. Mamdani has since sought to clarify that the “aunt” was, in fact, a distant cousin, now deceased. Mr. Cuomo said the tearful anecdote was “all an act” intended to deflect from scrutiny of Mr. Mamdani’s own alleged antisemitism.
Mr. Mamdani defeated Mr. Cuomo — whose tenure as governor was tarnished by multiple allegations of sexual harassment and a cover-up of COVID-19 death-rate data — to gain the Democratic nomination in June.
Many see the race between the embattled governor and the self-declared socialist as a bellwether on the future direction of the Democratic Party, still reeling from the reelection of President Trump after years of political and legal attacks that sought to make him unelectable.
Nearly all of the voters for Mr. Sliwa in the Suffolk poll named Mr. Cuomo as their preferred second choice over Mr. Mamdani.
Still, according to the Quinnipiac poll, Mr. Sliwa also had the lowest “unfavorable” rating, at 38%, to Mr. Mamdani’s 41% and Mr. Cuomo’s 54%.
In fact, nearly a third of those surveyed — 30% — said they had not heard enough about Mr. Sliwa, compared to 11% for Mr. Mamdani and 8% for Mr. Cuomo.
Pollsters are far from showing consensus on the race.
A poll released Monday by the right-leaning Manhattan Institute showed a 15-point advantage for Mr. Mamdani, more on par with the average, while it put Mr. Sliwa’s 19% within striking distance of Mr. Cuomo’s 28% in the race for second place.
That poll also showed Rep. Elise Stefanik, New York Republican, with a 1-point edge over incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, in next year’s New York gubernatorial race.
