After months of candidate mudslinging, feisty debates and relentless door-knocking, voters in Virginia and New Jersey head to the polls Tuesday to decide high-stakes races that could offer early clues about the national political mood 10 months into President Trump’s second term and one year out from the 2026 midterm elections.
In New York, voters are weighing whether state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s socialist vision fits the needs of the country’s biggest and priciest city or whether they would rather turn back the clock with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is attempting a political comeback after resigning in 2021 because of sexual harassment allegations he denies.
Out West, California Gov. Gavin Newsom could get a boost in his march toward a likely bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. If voters approve the new congressional maps he is championing, they will hand a victory to Mr. Newsom and other Democrats in their fight against redistricting in Republican-led states. In Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to retain three Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court in contests that have drawn national attention.
Mr. Trump’s influence looms over it all.
Although contests are unfolding on mostly Democratic-friendly turf, the results could serve as warning signs for both parties as they head into the 2026 midterm campaign season.
“This is one of those things where you have to read between the lines as to the strength of the Democratic or Republican sentiment because all the elections are playing out in states where voters went for Kamala Harris,” said John Couvillon, a pollster and political strategist. “The question then becomes: Are they near Democratic victories with Republican wins, or are they wipeouts?”
Virginia
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, has held a steady lead in the polls over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race.
The winner will replace Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is barred from serving consecutive terms under the Virginia Constitution.
Ms. Spanberger has run as a pragmatic problem-solver and has promised to address the rising costs of energy, housing and health care.
She has kept Mr. Trump front and center in her campaign, tying Ms. Earle-Sears to his policies, including the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts to federal agencies and the firings of federal employees. Virginia is home to more than 140,000 government workers.
Ms. Earle-Sears has put Ms. Spanberger on her heels over thorny transgender issues, criticizing the Democrat’s support of biological men in women’s sports and locker rooms.
She also has pressured Ms. Spanberger to demand that Jay Jones drop out of the race for attorney general after reports surfaced that he mused in 2022 text messages about killing the Republican speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates.
The bombshell revelations have boosted Republican Jay Miyares’ reelection bid and Republicans’ hopes as they look to avoid a statewide Democratic sweep and emerge with some bragging rights.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi has a slight polling lead over Republican John Reid.
Political insiders are also closely watching races for the Virginia House of Delegates.
All 100 seats are up for grabs. Democrats hope to expand their slim majority as they consider redrawing the state’s congressional lines to make gains next fall.
New Jersey
Of all the contests on the map, the New Jersey governor’s race might be the most attractive and attainable prize for Republicans. They hope to build on Mr. Trump’s gains in the traditionally Democratic-leaning state next year.
On the ballot: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state lawmaker.
Both have pitched plans to tackle rising energy and housing costs, but their visions and their tone couldn’t be more different.
Ms. Sherrill has positioned herself as a center-left moderate.
She has been criticized for coming across as too choreographed and too canned on the stump, raising questions about whether the party’s base, including minority communities, will turn out.
Ms. Sherrill has tried to harness the anti-Trump sentiment in the state by branding Mr. Ciattarelli as a Trump loyalist. She has called her opponent the “Trump of Trenton” and accused him of being too weak to resist what she describes as chaos and corruption from the White House. She also has promised to stand firm against Trump policies on tariffs and abortion.
Mr. Ciattarelli argues that New Jersey needs a governor who can work with the White House, not against it.
He has pledged to roll back the sanctuary policies of Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, and give local police more authority to cooperate with federal immigration agents, especially in targeting violent illegal immigrants.
He has also vowed to lower property taxes and reform the state’s formula for funding K-12 schools.
Mr. Ciattarelli, who is running for governor for a third time, is carrying momentum into Election Day. The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Ms. Sherill with a 3-percentage-point lead, but Mr. Ciattarelli has been steadily gaining ground.
All 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly are also on the ballot.
New York City
Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani has charted a far different and bolder course from Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Sherill. He has run a charismatic campaign centered on lifting the working class in a city that is home to more billionaires than anywhere else in the world.
Mr. Mandani’s wish list includes free child care, city-run grocery stores and a four-year rent freeze on roughly 1 million apartments. To pay for his vision, he unabashedly supports higher taxes on the wealthiest 1% and large corporations.
The little-known state assemblyman with a thin employment and legislative record shocked the political world by defeating Mr. Cuomo by almost 13 percentage points in the Democratic primary.
Mr. Cuomo, in turn, announced that he was running as an independent and has been playing catch-up ever since. Republican Curtis Sliwa is also running in a long-shot bid.
Mr. Cuomo, 67, has leaned into his executive experience. He argued that Mr. Mamdani, 34, born to Indian parents in Uganda, is not equipped to lead the city and that Mr. Mamdani’s socialist vision would cause harm.
Mr. Mamdani’s rise has seized the attention of the political world. During an appearance on CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday, Mr. Trump derided him as a “communist, not a socialist.”
“He is far worse than socialist,” said Mr. Trump, adding that he would have difficulty releasing federal funds to New York if Mr. Mamdani is elected.
Mr. Mamdani has also divided the Democratic Party.
He notched early endorsements from fellow democratic socialist Sen. Bernard Sanders and “Squad” leader Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and, more recently, from Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and other members of New York’s congressional delegation have withheld their endorsements.
Mr. Jeffries and others have lashed out at Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans as they seek to cast Mr. Mamdani as the new leader of the Democratic Party.
Asked over the weekend whether Mr. Mamdani embodies the party’s future, Mr. Jeffries said no.
California’s Proposition 50
Mr. Newsom has urged California Democrats to set aside traditional political norms to combat Mr. Trump.
Mr. Newsom and other Democrats are asking California voters to pass a referendum that would replace the work of the state’s independent redistricting commission with a more Democratic-friendly map.
The ballot question is Proposition 50, The Election Rigging Response Act.
It is a response to the Trump-inspired Republican push in Texas, where lawmakers broke with tradition earlier this year by adopting new congressional districts that could help Republicans net five seats in Congress and defend their slim House majority next fall.
“He is not screwing around,” Mr. Newsom said of Mr. Trump on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “He’s changing the rules. He’s rigging the game because he knows he’ll lose if all things are equal. He did not expect California to fight fire with fire.”
Surveys show the referendum is likely to pass.
