With her lackluster support further weighed down by the political albatross of far-left Democrat Zohran Mamdani, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is highly vulnerable to being defeated by Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik in next year’s election for governor, according to a new poll.
Although the poll was commissioned by Stefanik’s campaign, and comes 13 months before voters render their verdict on Hochul, it captured what Newsweek called the “changing mood of the electorate.”
The poll of 1,250 likely voters had a 2.6 percent margin of error. The poll asked about a Stefanik-Hochul race in two ways.
In a straight-up contest, Hochul emerged on top 48 percent to 43 percent. When respondents were told of Hochul’s support for Mamdani, a far-left candidate for New York City mayor, Stefanik came out on top at 46.4 percent, with Hochul trailing at 45.9 percent.
The Mamdani factor also showed up when respondents were asked about voting for Democrats if Mamdani wins. Forty-seven percent of independents and 38 percent of voters overall said they would be less likely to vote for a Democrat if, as expected, Mamdani wins.
Hochul, who followed Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo after he stepped down in 2021, had only 15 percent of the overall sample, saying they would definitely vote for her next year, against 59 percent who said they want someone new.
Grayhouse pollster Landon Wall said Hochul is in a “deeply vulnerable position.”
“Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,” Wall wrote.
“The data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win,” he wrote.
Can Republicans flip New York state?
Hochul could not even summon up a majority of her own party to beat back a primary challenge from former Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. The poll showed that in a primary, Hochul had 43 percent support with Delgado at 14 percent, 28 percent undecided, and 15 percent preferring “someone else.”
“A sitting governor unable to secure majority support from her party shows the historically weak position Hochul is in entering 2026,” Wall wrote.
Stefanik has not yet made a formal announcement, but is expected to win the GOP nomination without opposition.
“The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst Governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party,” Stefanik said in a statement, according to the New York Post.
“It is now crystal clear why Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the Communist Antisemite running for Mayor of New York City because she desperately needed to shore up her own party,” Stefanik said.
“Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills,” she said.
“Kathy Hochul’s single-party Democrat rule affordability crisis, coupled with the crime crisis from failed bail reform, combined with the sanctuary state policies costing, putting criminals and illegals first and New Yorkers last, is a political disaster for Hochul,” she said.
As noted by Politico, in 2022, Hochul was elected with 52.9 percent of the vote against 47.1 percent for then-Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, who is now the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.
As of August, the independent voter project reported that New York has 5.86 million Democrats, (47.4 percent of the state’s overall total enrollment), 2.82 million Republicans, 3.12 million independents, and 564,000 members of other parties.
The last Republican governor of New York was George Pataki, who led the state from 1985 through 2006.
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