New Poll Sets Off Major Alarm Bells for Vulnerable House Democrat

Maine Rep. Jared Golden, one of the most vulnerable House Democrats seeking reelection in 2026, faces an uphill climb in his quest for a fifth term, according to new polling.

A survey from Pine Tree State Poll released Thursday shows Golden, 43, trailing former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage, 77, 44 percent to 49 percent among likely voters.

Golden’s poor polling performance comes as he is facing a serious primary challenge from the left for the first time in his career, and national Republican groups are pouring money into the race to flip his seat red.

Golden represents the most GOP-leaning district currently held by a Democrat, making the purple district a top pickup opportunity for Republicans during the midterms.

President Donald Trump bested former Vice President Kamala Harris in the district by nine percentage points in 2024.

LePage, a two-term governor who has not held office since 2019, also won Golden’s district during his failed run for a third term against Democratic Gov. Janet Mills in 2022.

The ex-governor remains more popular in Maine’s 2nd congressional district compared to Golden, who holds just a 16 percent favorability rating among district residents, according to the poll.

Golden also has a net favorability rating of -25 percentage points. Forty percent of 2nd district residents reported a neutral opinion toward Golden, and 41 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Though LePage’s favorables are also slightly underwater, 41 percent of respondents have a positive view of the former governor, 51 percent have a negative view — a net favorability rating of -10 percentage points — and 6 percent are neutral toward him, according to the survey.

Nearly six in ten residents of Golden’s district told the pollster that their congressman does not deserve to be re-elected. Roughly a quarter of respondents — and just 51 percent of Democrats — said he should be re-elected to serve another two-year term.

Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap entered the Democratic primary in early October, despite establishment Democrats urging him to pass on the race.

Dunlap is making a run against Golden from the left and has blasted the incumbent for periodically crossing party lines to vote for GOP-authored legislation.

Golden was the lone House Democrat to buck House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and vote for a GOP spending bill to avert a government shutdown.

The pollster did not survey a hypothetical two-way matchup between Golden and Dunlap.

Pine Tree State Poll also found Graham Platner, a Bernie Sanders-backed oyster farmer, carving out a commanding lead over Mills in the state’s Democratic primary for Senate.

However, the polling was conducted amid a torrent of revelations about his social media history and possessing a tattoo widely believed to resemble a Nazi symbol.

Platner has been dogged by a flurry of unearthed Reddit posts where he described himself as a communist and insulted police and rural white Americans, among other controversial messages.

The insurgent left-wing candidate has since covered up the controversial tattoo.

The American Action Network, a sister organization of the House GOP leadership-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, has spent $2 million alone to unseat Golden this year.

“No one likes Jared Golden. He should drop out to save face and preserve what little credibility (16%) he has left,” Congressional Leadership Fund spokeswoman Lydia Hall said in a statement, referencing Golden’s low favorability rating.

An April CLF poll first reported by Notus found Golden trailing LePage 43 percent to 48 percent among likely voters in a general election matchup.

The multimodal survey of 1,015 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted the poll.

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