A new poll reveals the 2026 Senate race in Michigan will likely be a fiercely contested battle, with Republican Mike Rogers holding narrow leads in hypothetical matchups against Democratic candidates.
The poll, “conducted Jan. 2-6 for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV,” matches up Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers against three leading Democrat candidates in a bid for the seat of Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich, who is not seeking another term.
The Rogers campaign declared the poll a win, as spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet wrote in a statement, “poll after poll continues to show that working families are rallying behind Mike Rogers.”
Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., by fewer than 20,000 votes in 2024.
At the head of the Democratic candidates is Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., who trails with 43.7% support against Rogers’ 44.1% in a hypothetical matchup—well within the poll’s four percent margin of error.
Stevens celebrated the result in a post on X, writing, “Polls show I’m the strongest candidate to beat Mike Rogers and stop the MAGA agenda from continuing to shrink our economy, destroy our manufacturing industry, and keep jacking up costs.”
Arik Wolk, a spokesperson for Haley’s campaign, told The Daily Signal in a statement,
“yet another poll shows that Haley Stevens is the only Democrat who can defeat Mike Rogers with her unique magic with independent voters–a group that will be the deciding factor this election.”
Trailing Stevens is State Sen. Mallory McMorrow. McMorrow receives 42.4% support in her hypothetical matchup, compared to Rogers’ 45.7% support.
In third place is former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed’s disadvantage is outside the margin of error, receiving 41.6% support against Rogers’ 48%.
El-Sayed previously ran for the Democrat gubernatorial nomination in Michigan, receiving the endorsements of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was not yet a member of Congress.
Both El-Sayed and McMorrow have accused the government of Israel of committing “genocide” in contrast with Stevens, and both are highly active on social media.
The Michigan Senate primaries will be held on Aug. 4. Rogers has already received endorsements from President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.; and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The survey also indicated name recognition advantages for Rogers, with 71% name recognition among voters.
Among Democrats, El-Sayed tops the list in name recognition ay 47%, followed by Stevens at 41.7% and McMorrow at 24.3%.
The Rogers campaign declared the poll a win, saying in a statement, “poll after poll continues to show that working families are rallying behind Mike Rogers.”
The race is important for determining the balance of the Senate, in which Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of 53-47.
Michigan is one of two Democrat-held seats labeled a ‘toss-up” for 2026 by The Cook Political Report, with Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., holding the other seat.
Conversely, The Cook Political Report also labels seats held by Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Susan Collins as “toss-ups”.
The El-Sayed and McMorrow campaigns did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the poll.
