Throughout the Russo-Ukrainian war, Senator Lindsey Graham has been a primary instigator. His involvement goes back to at least 2016, when he visited Ukraine and told soldiers that “your fight is our fight”, while accusing Russia of “hacking our elections”.
After the war truly kicked off in 2022, Graham told Americans that funding Ukraine was an excellent investment. It was simple, according to the 70-year-old bachelor. This was a chance to kill Russians without losing any American soldiers. A win-win.
In September 2023, Graham told60 Minutes the following:
They’re on track to break the Russian army. The only way they could possibly lose is if we pull the plug on’em…
People ask me, is it worth it? Here’s what we’ve gotten for our investment. We haven’t lost one soldier. We’ve reduced the combat power of the Russian army by 50%, and not one of us has died. This is a great deal for Americans.
According to Graham, the conflict would destroy Russia’s military, crash the economy, punish their insolence, and likely even lead to Putin’s downfall.
In 1941, Adolf Hitler had a similar assessment of Russia, saying, “We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.” Needless to say, Germany’s decision to invade Russia marked the turning point in WW2. Things did not go well for the Fuhrer from that point on.
Already it is becoming clear that Graham’s assessment of Russia was on par with Germany’s circa 1941. The arrogance of Lindsey Graham and other warmongers has led to the death of more than a million people.
And far from weakening Russia’s military, it has acted as a catalyst for Putin to unite the country while modernizing and updating the country’s offensive capabilities.
Modern Airpower
Today Russia is the world’s leading user of military drones. The picture below is from a new factory which produces Russia’s Geran-2 long-range attack drone.
The Geran-2 is a terrifyingly effective weapon. Originally based on Iran’s Shahed-136 kamikaze model, Russia has upgraded the weapon system and localized its manufacturing inside its borders.
The 11-foot long drone has a range of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles), and a powerful warhead of 90kg (198 lbs).
The Geran-2 today is extremely accurate, with optical and satellite navigation options. It is highly resistant to jamming. And Russia is now integrating on-board AI-targeting systems, so even in the face of jamming, it will be able to intelligently survey the landscape and choose a target without a satellite or cellular connection.
Military Watch Magazine reports that Russia may soon be producing 500 Geran-2s per day. And the cost is low, somewhere between $15k-$40k per unit. As production scales, costs will continue to fall. It’s a dirt-cheap bomb with wings.
The one downside of the propeller-powered weapon is that it’s slow, with a top speed of around 125 mph. Ukrainians have nicknamed the flying bomb the moped due to its distinctive 2-stroke engine whine. But a jet-powered Geran-3 is now in early production.
Due to Western sanctions, Russia has now localized production of the entire supply chain for Geran series drones. This is shown below in an infographic by Rybar:
Source: Rybar
Below is a map showing a single Russian attack wave on Ukrainian targets using long-range attack drones like the Geran-2 and ballistic missiles such as the Iskander-M. The yellow lines represent Geran-2 strikes.
Russia has been hammering Ukrainian military positions, weapons production facilities, and power plants. Ukraine has been remarkably resilient, but no country can withstand this kind of nightly battering forever.
The Backfire Heard Around the World
Due to the war with Ukraine, Russia has strengthened its alliances with North Korea, Iran, and China. North Korea has reportedly provided Russia with up to 13 million artillery shells, and is apparently now helping Russia build drones. In exchange the country will receive military drone technology. This is the fruit of foreign entanglements.
Russia has also honed in its existing weapons tech. For example, at the beginning of the war, I remember seeing many inaccurate strikes by Russia’s Iskander missile, which often missed targets by 50-100 meters. Now they’re dead-on accurate in every video released. And there seem to be 5-7 new Iskander strike videos put out by the Russian Defense Ministry daily. Clearly, Russian missile quality and production volume are soaring.
Russia has also extensively tested and evolved its electronic warfare systems. It now routinely jams American HIMARS guided rockets and ATACMS missiles by spoofing GPS signals. So much so that Ukrainian forces have been forced to abandon their use in certain areas. It has even jammed SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, which provide much-needed comms to Ukraine’s military, using a ground-based laser system called Peresvet.
During the course of this conflict, Russia has perfected the use of glide bombs. Ranging from 500 to 3,000 kilograms, these devastating guided weapons are now used daily to hit Ukrainian positions from distances of 70 km or greater. Here’s a still shot from a video showing a 3,000 kg (6,613 lb) FAB-3000 glide bomb hitting a UAF field base.
Source: X
Ukraine has also made huge strides in its drone and electronic warfare technology, and some of those advances will flow to NATO. But Russia will emerge as the primary winner of this conflict, by far.
Necessity is the mother of invention, and nothing brings about necessity like war.
This conflict has not weakened the Russian military, or economy, as the hawks hoped. Yes, Putin has probably lost around 120,000 soldiers KIA. But Russia now has the most experienced modern military in the world. The only one that has fought a large-scale war against a near-peer opponent (and survived largely intact).
Russia is a bad enemy to have. This has been proven throughout history. It’s time to end this war and restore diplomacy.
Time for Peace
My friend Jim Rickards recently nailed the situation in a note to subscribers of Strategic Intelligence. Here’s an excerpt:
Trump had the opportunity to cut off funding to the neo-Nazis running Ukraine and end military aid. I advised the Trump team to do that at the time. I also warned that if Trump did not act quickly, that Biden’s war would soon become Trump’s war.
That seems to be happening now. On July 14, Trump announced he was providing new weapons systems to Ukraine, including Patriot anti-missile batteries. These weapons were to be laundered through NATO, but the systems are American and the U.S. controls NATO, so the NATO connection was a sham.
Trump also announced secondary sanctions in the form of tariffs on countries that trade with Russia. This could include China and India and come on top of new tariffs already being imposed. Finally, Trump is supporting a bill in the Senate sponsored by warmonger Lindsey Graham that would increase such secondary sanctions to 500 percent.
Here’s what we can be sure of: the sanctions will fail, they will not stop the war, and they will hurt the U.S. economy far more than they hurt Russia. Trump is going down the same road as LBJ with the War in Vietnam.
In 1964, LBJ could have said Vietnam was JFKs war and simply ended it. Instead, he continued the war, escalated it and eventually destroyed his agenda and reputation. Likewise, this is no longer Biden’s war. It’s Trump’s war. And it will destroy Trump’s agenda and legacy exactly as Vietnam did to LBJ.
It’s time to end this pointless war. Far from weakening Russia, it has accomplished the opposite.
There is still time to make peace. And yes, that will require conceding to many of Russia’s demands. That is the typical outcome when one side is decisively winning a war.
Of course, the U.S. still has leverage in the situation. We can use sanctions relief to get a better outcome for Ukraine than they would otherwise receive. The Ukrainians have sacrificed much and fought bravely. They deserve whatever help we can give in ending the war with as little territory loss as possible.
But the clock is ticking. If this war doesn’t end soon, Ukraine risks losing its sovereignty entirely.
The situation for Ukrainian soldiers and citizens is only getting harder. Hawks like Lindsey Graham convinced them they would join NATO and have the coalition’s full backing. That was never going to happen. For Graham and his ilk, Ukraine was nothing but a pawn. A tool that’s nearly used up.
There is no good time to concede a war, but the longer this one goes on, the worse the outcome will be for the citizens and soldiers of Ukraine. I hope President Trump moves with haste. This is a chance to restore his foreign policy chops and reclaim international leadership. He should seize it.
