Iran has always used asymmetric warfare as its primary strategy against its enemies.
And, despite all the bluster about sinking American aircraft carriers and raining fire on American troops, it obviously doesn’t have the capacity to do that.
Up until now, the regime has not faced an existential threat, and there has always been a bit of a mystery about how it would respond to one.
We know its deterrence strategy, because that is now in the rear-view mirror, and it has been obvious for years: rely on threats of terrorism, proxies in the Middle East and around the world, and on the implicit and occasionally explicit support of its “allies” Russia and China.
Obviously, the proxy strategy fell apart after the October 7th attacks, which Iran sponsored and whose perpetrators it helped train. Perhaps the greatest miscalculation in military history since Hitler invaded Russia, the October 7th attacks has led to the systematic destruction of Iran’s allies in the region.
Behold. The worst military strategist in modern history.
The man whose decision to launch 7th October led to the destruction of Gaza, the shredding of Hezbollah, the fall of Assad, and now maybe the fall of the Iranian regime. pic.twitter.com/XcrtSN9zGx
— Andrew Fox (@Mr_Andrew_Fox) February 28, 2026
Betting on Russia and China was similarly a miscalculation. Neither actually has much ability to project power outside their near-borders, and neither is going to risk confrontation with the United States to defend a regime like Iran, even though its collapse will harm their own interests greatly.
It is still crazy to think about how one day changed the world.
On October 6, 2023, the Islamic Republic was at the height of its power. It had spent decades developing well-coordinated terror proxies throughout the Middle East. It had effective control of Lebanon via Hezbollah,…
— AG (@AGHamilton29) February 28, 2026
The collapse of Iran will be a devastating blow to both regimes, but not nearly as devastating as having the world witness their military assets in the region be destroyed.
“The Moscow-Tehran axis is falling apart before our eyes.” – Ukrainian expert Igor Semyvolos:
It has been confirmed that Iran did indeed seek assistance from Russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow, however, resorted to… https://t.co/8KofXVRkuZ pic.twitter.com/swOMe3sSkt
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 1, 2026
“The Moscow-Tehran axis is falling apart before our eyes.” – Ukrainian expert Igor Semyvolos:
It has been confirmed that Iran did indeed seek assistance from Russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow, however, resorted to legalistic maneuvering: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a case that does not fall under the collective defense provisions.
Iran reportedly asked to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at Russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, Russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even switched off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles, in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
The Kremlin’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is a “fair-weather ally.” Iranian elites – particularly the pragmatic wing – are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe.
So what is left? If their terrorist infrastructure isn’t what it was cracked up to be, their missile forces are less dangerous to the United States and Israel as advertised, and their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period is in serious doubt, what do they have left?
Now we know: attacking their Gulf neighbors.
NEW: Iran reportedly intends to repeatedly strike Dubai and other cities in the Gulf with the belief that their populations are not as prepared or willing to engage in prolonged military conflict as Israel and will ask US to halt attacks under pressure.
— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) March 1, 2026
Over the past 36 hours, Iran has attacked more Arab and Muslim countries than Israel has in its entire history.
And most of these countries aren’t even involved in the conflict.
The Iranian regime launched 460+ missiles and 350+ drones at 11 countries across the Middle East:…
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 1, 2026
Over the past 36 hours, Iran has attacked more Arab and Muslim countries than Israel has in its entire history.
And most of these countries aren’t even involved in the conflict.
The Iranian regime launched 460+ missiles and 350+ drones at 11 countries across the Middle East:
1. Israel 🇮🇱
2. Jordan 🇯🇴
3. Kuwait 🇰🇼
4. Oman 🇴🇲
5. Bahrain 🇧🇭
6. Qatar 🇶🇦
7. UAE 🇦🇪
8. Iraq 🇮🇶
9. Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
10. Cyprus 🇨🇾
11. Syria 🇸🇾
Iran has hit civilian infrastructure, apartment buildings, and military bases in the region, uniting the Gulf Cooperation Council countries against it in what appears to be a vain hope, at least so far, that they will cry uncle and pressure the United States into backing off.
🚨 Iran strikes more Muslim inhabited nations on Ramadan than any country in history. pic.twitter.com/fvznTX0VWQ
— Cam Higby 🇺🇸 (@camhigby) February 28, 2026
This, too, appears to be a miscalculation, both because it has greatly angered people in the region and because nobody likes betting on the likely loser. Even if these countries were angry at the US for putting them in the line of fire, which, for all I know, is true, they can do the math. You stick with the winner, and Iran doesn’t look like a winner right now.
All the top guys are getting killed, as both Beege and Ed have written about as the conflict has unfolded.
The temporarily acting supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Arafeh, was killed after new strikes on Tehran, according to Israeli media.
He was appointed this morning to replace Khamenei, who was also killed yesterday in strikes by the US and Israel.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/MxIXoxapZ0
— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) March 1, 2026
And it’s not like anybody in the region particularly likes Iran. Quite the opposite. Some countries have maintained nominally good relations with the country, but Saudi Arabia doesn’t have such a powerful military because it fears Kuwait. Iran is their traditional enemy.
You know Iran’s military chain of command is fucked when the Iranian FM himself says “our military units are now independent and somehow isolated” .
US/Israel wiped off the entire regime leadership.
— S. Rifai (@THE_47th) March 1, 2026
Iran has now lost its entire command and control structure, so all the military actions being taken right now are the result of pre-planning. Which means that, from the very beginning, Iran’s regime survival strategy was attacking all its neighbors in the hope that they would rise up against the United States.
That’s a thin reed on which to base national survival.
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