By José Niño
As pro-immigration Democrats rally against the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration, new data challenges their core claims about immigrant crime rates. To support their opposition to Donald Trump’s deportation efforts, Democrats frequently argue, almost as an article of faith, that illegal immigrants are less prone to committing criminal acts. “The crime rate among immigrants is far lower than the crime rate among native-born Americans,” Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) asserted confidently, “so the whole issue is wrong.”
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“Immigrants commit crimes in this country at a rate lower than natural-born citizens,” added Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Ct.). “So, if you want a safe town or a safe neighborhood, you are better off if you have immigrants.”
John R. Lott Jr., an economist and a renowned expert and author on guns and crime, does not buy the assertions put forth by Democratic leaders. His recent article on the website of conservative news outlet “American Greatness” titled “Crime Rates of Illegal Migrants Underreported” underscored this point.
Whether crime is truly falling amid a surge in illegal immigration depends on which data source is used, according to Lott. While FBI statistics reflect only crimes reported to law enforcement agencies, the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics tracks total crime, including incidents not reported to police. Per these broader statistics, total crime increased sharply in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This was the largest percentage jump of any three-year period on record, coinciding with a significant influx of illegal immigrants.
A major challenge in analyzing these trends is the difficulty government agencies have in accurately identifying illegal immigrants within their databases. For example, errors in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is designed to bar non-citizens with criminal records from purchasing firearms, highlight how unreliable these records can be.
There is also more explicit data connecting illegal immigration to crime. In the past year, the Biden administration acknowledged that 9% of “non-detained” illegal immigrants released into the country—about “662,566 out of 7.4 million”—had criminal histories. Notably, this figure largely reflects individuals who voluntarily surrendered at the border. It does not include the estimated 2 million “gotaways” who crossed the border undetected during the Biden administration, nor the unknown numbers who evaded detection entirely.
In December, an estimate for New York City suggested that roughly 7% of the illegal immigrant population in the area had criminal records. A previous study by the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office found that illegal immigrants accounted for 21.8% of felony convictions in the county’s Superior Court—more than double their share of Arizona’s population. Mexican nationals alone constituted 13% of the state’s prison inmates.
Further research by the Crime Prevention Research Center for the Arizona County Prosecutor’s Association revealed that illegal immigrants make up a disproportionately large segment of Arizona’s prison population, while legal immigrants are more law-abiding than the public. Illegal immigrants were found to be at least 142% more likely to be convicted of a crime than other residents of Arizona, tend to commit more serious offenses, serve sentences that are 10.5% longer, are more frequently classified as dangerous, and are 45% more likely to be gang members than U.S. citizens.
In recent years, prominent immigration restriction organizations have backed Lott’s assertions about illegal immigrants committing higher rates of crime compared to Americans.
For example, the Center for Immigration Studies has published several reports claiming higher crime rates among illegal aliens, primarily citing data from the Texas Department of Public Safety. One of their most notable studies, “Misuse of Texas Data Understates Illegal Immigrant Criminality” (2022), authored by Sean Kennedy, Jason Richwine, and Steven A. Camarota, argued that previous research underestimated illegal alien crime rates. The study claims that, when properly interpreted, Texas DPS data suggests illegal immigrants are convicted of homicide and sexual assault at higher rates than the state average.
More recently, Todd Bensman’s analysis highlighted Texas Department of Public Safety statistics showing that between June 2011 and June 2024, roughly 437,000 criminal aliens were charged with over 533,000 criminal offenses, including 997 homicide charges and 6,744 sexual assault charges.
The organization has consistently argued that methodological flaws in opposing studies lead to the undercounting of illegal immigrant crime figures. CIS researchers contend that the time delay in identifying illegal aliens in the criminal justice system causes other studies to underestimate their true crime rates.
In a similar vein, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) has produced research using State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP) data to support claims of higher illegal immigrant crime rates. Their 2019 report, “SCAAP Data Suggest Illegal Aliens Commit Crime at a Much Higher Rate Than Citizens & Lawful Immigrants,” authored by Matt O’Brien, Spencer Raley, and Casey Ryan, concluded that illegal aliens are incarcerated at much higher rates than citizens and legal immigrants.
According to the states examined in the study, illegal aliens are incarcerated up to five and a half times as frequently as citizens and legal immigrants. FAIR’s analysis suggests that illegal aliens are on average at least three times as likely to be incarcerated than citizens and legal immigrants in the country. The organization argues that since the SCAAP program only includes illegal aliens who have been convicted of crimes, the higher incarceration rates point to higher rates of criminal acts.
Ultimately, the facts suggest a more complex and concerning picture than many pro-mass-migration politicians are willing to admit. The growing body of research makes clear that the relationship between illegal immigration and crime deserves far more honest scrutiny than it has received.
