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The nation’s historic hiring freeze appears to be ending as employers prepare to expand their workforces in 2026, according to recent surveys and industry reports. Zip Recruiter found that 63% of more than 1,500 hiring managers surveyed in September expect to increase payrolls next year, marking the first significant loosening of the job market since President Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.
This represents a shift from what researchers call “The Great Freeze,” a period of extreme hiring caution that saw employee turnover plummet from 177% in 2023 to just 50% this year. While the 63% figure is lower than the 76% who expected expansion in 2024, it signals renewed confidence among employers who spent most of 2025 right-sizing their workforces amid concerns about rising labor costs and potential inflationary impacts from Trump administration tariffs.
The anticipated hiring rebound is being led by small businesses and entry-level positions, with 31.5% of surveyed employers saying most new hires would be entry-level workers. Companies are increasingly dropping degree requirements and incorporating skills assessments into their hiring processes, building on a post-pandemic trend away from requiring college education for many positions.
The American Staffing Association has tracked six consecutive weeks of increased hiring activity, driven partly by seasonal factors but also by expectations of lower labor costs due to tax code changes and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Industry experts note that temporary and contract hiring has increased, typically an early indicator of broader labor market recovery.
However, the hiring landscape is being fundamentally transformed by artificial intelligence and automation.
Zip Recruiter’s survey found that 38% of employers have replaced some roles with automation, and 25.8% predict technological advancements will decrease overall headcount. Major companies including Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel have laid off tens of thousands of employees this year as they adopt AI for various operations.
Small and medium-sized businesses appear particularly enthusiastic about AI’s potential, with 73.7% agreeing it could streamline recruiting and 47.1% already using it to automate hiring processes. Despite these technological shifts, experts emphasize that demand remains strong in healthcare, finance, accounting, and IT roles that oversee automated workflows.
The White House characterized the predicted hiring rebound as proof that the America First agenda is working, though some analysts cautioned that full recovery depends on resolving ongoing trade tensions with China, Europe, Canada, and Mexico. As of August, job openings stood at 7.2 million, essentially unchanged from pre-pandemic levels.
Read more: Reports predict U.S. hiring rebound in 2026
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