The Homeland Security Department estimated Tuesday that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrants have self-deported since President Trump took office.
The department also said it has conducted formal deportations of more than 400,000 other migrants, bringing the total number of ousters to 2 million.
“The numbers don’t lie: 2 million illegal aliens have been removed or self-deported in just 250 days — proving that President Trump’s policies and Secretary [Kristi] Noem’s leadership are working and making American communities safe,” said Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin.
The departures come even as the pace of new immigrants arriving illegally is lower than any point on record.
The result is the U.S. is cycling out people much faster than they are being replaced.
Homeland Security pointed to a U.N. report that found a 97% reduction in migrants massing in Central America to head north to the U.S.
Fears of failure at the more secure U.S. border, and of having to spend time in detention only to be deported at the end of it, were major reasons why migrants said they abandoned their attempts.
Homeland Security did not say how it reached its figures.
The 400,000 figure is particularly tricky.
As of earlier this month, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement had formally removed about 215,000 people since Jan. 20, and that trend line would put the figure now at around 240,000.
A number of migrants have been returned at the border and others have been excluded from entry at ports of entry, though analysts doubted that would be enough to total the extra 160,000 or so.
The department projected that at its current pace it will reach 600,000 deportations “by the end of Donald Trump’s first year since returning to office.”
Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.
The overall departure numbers do track with an estimate by the Center for Immigration Studies, which crunched Census Bureau data in early August and reported that the unauthorized immigrant population was down 1.6 million under Mr. Trump.
That was part of a larger drop of 2.2 million in the total number of immigrants.
Under President Biden, the country added 120,000 new unauthorized immigrants a month.
Other data also suggests major change, such as the amount of money migrants are sending back to Mexico, which has dropped precipitously in recent months.
And Ms. Noem has said Latin American leaders have told her of the numbers streaming back to their nations.
The shift in demographics comes after a major upheaval of immigration policy by Mr. Trump.
He has shut down the loopholes that enticed immigrants to come illegally, surged federal resources into arresting and deporting those already here, and offered incentives for the immigrants to leave on their own.
Ms. Noem in particular has urged self-deportation, saying it can preserve future pathways for a return, while those who are formally deported are legally barred.
Experts said those who have left already are the low-hanging fruit, such as recent arrivals with fewer ties and whose lives may be easier to uproot.
Immigrant-rights advocates say the changes come at a significant cost. At the border, it means deserving asylum cases are being turned away, they argue.
And in the interior they warn of economic consequences from the loss of workers, saying businesses need the employees.
