Democrats had three big winners Tuesday, but New Jersey’s Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill could have the most staying power as a matter of math.
Sherrill, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, won a 13-point blowout for governor in what polls had shown to be a neck-and-neck race.
“She is a rising star. To win what was supposed to be a competitive race by such a large margin is a significant task,” Micah Rasmussen, director of Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, told The Daily Signal.
Further, she ran as a moderate, in strong contrast to the much-watched New York City mayor’s race, where Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani ran as a self-professed socialist.
“You can’t help but notice that she won her election by much more than he won his election by,” Rasmussen added. “She brought a wider coalition of voters together. That’s a lesson for Democrats in future elections.”
Sherrill won 56% of the vote against state Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli’s 43%. Ciattarelli just four years earlier ran a tightly contested race against outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy.
Mamdani cracked 50% in a three-way race in the city, beating his nearest opponent, former disgraced Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points.
Down south in Virginia, former Democrat U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger won by a similar margin as Sherrill. But unlike in New Jersey, which appeared close for most of the contest, Spanberger generally led in polls throughout the campaign. Surveys tightened somewhat a few weeks before Election Day, but Spanberger ultimately defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
“The margins were much bigger in both states than in 2021,” Lara Bonatesta, a writer with Ballotpedia, which tracks election data, told The Daily Signal. “[Phil] Murphy won his race by two or three points. It was similar in Virginia. The turnout was a big factor.”
Further, though both women were elected governors of large states, Sherrill is eligible to run again in 2029. Spanberger is constitutionally limited to one term.
“You can usually get a lot more done in eight years than in four years, but that could depend on the individual,” Bonatesta said.
It’s too early to speculate whether either could be on a national ticket in 2028 as a vice presidential candidate, Rasmussen noted.
“The kind of broad appeal they had—I won’t call it necessarily moderate or centrist—united a broad coalition of votes. [That] should be what Democrats try to bottle up. Don’t pick a divider,” he said.
It’s not as simple as taking a centrist tone, said Feminist Majority President Eleanor Smeal said.
“They are very knowledgeable women who have experience in leadership positions,” Smeal told The Daily Signal. “They support the Equal Rights Amendment. They support reproductive rights and choice. And they support other important issues such as Medicaid and Medicare.”
Sherrill has ranked 80% or higher for her liberal congressional voting record on the very liberal Americans for Democratic Action and Progressive Punch scorecards and 2% on Heritage Action for America’s conservative score card. She also has a 100% score with NARAL Pro-Choice America for her record on abortion.
Sherrill has touted her moderate credentials. In 2023, the Common Ground Committee ranked her as the most bipartisan member of the House delegation from New Jersey and in the top 5% most bipartisan members of the House.
She also highlighted her biography of military service and prosecuting crime as a federal prosecutor—themes that often appeal to conservative-leaning or swing voters.
She is a 1994 U.S. Naval Academy graduate and spent 10 years in the Navy with missions as a helicopter pilot. She was later an assistant U.S. attorney in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in New Jersey.
Sherrill did come under fire during the campaign regarding a cheating scandal in her Naval Academy class that reportedly involved more than 100 cadets. She wasn’t personally implicated in cheating. She graduated, but didn’t walk the stage, which she said happened because she didn’t turn in a classmate and report what she knew.
Both of the new governors are what Democrats need going forward, contends Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Though, it’s not clear the Democrat base is on board.
“Spanberger better fits the mold of candidates that national Democrats like to run in competitive states and districts, as does Sherrill,” Kondik told The Daily Signal. “Whether Democratic primary voters agree is something that is worth watching in both the 2026 and 2028 primary seasons.”
