China’s cybereconomic warfare – Washington Times

OPINION:

Imagine what would happen if the lights suddenly went out in Taiwan. Its economy would grind to a halt. Food supplies would rot without refrigeration. Infrastructure systems wouldn’t function. Hospital patients would perish as vital machines shut down.

The island nation would essentially be decimated — not from bombs or missiles but from of cyberattacks and supply disruptions. That’s the scenario Adm. Mark Montgomery laid out for me in a recent episode of my podcast, “Newt’s World.”

Adm. Montgomery is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He’s a seasoned national security expert with extensive experience in cybersecurity and defense policy. His insights on China’s growing cyber capabilities are timely and important. We had a remarkable conversation.

As Adm. Montgomery said on the podcast, China may never need to invade Taiwan militarily. Instead, he explained, “they could use cyberattacks, economic pressure and information warfare to bring Taiwan under control without ever firing a shot.”

He described just how vulnerable Taiwan really is. About half of its electricity comes from liquefied natural gas, and the island has only a few days’ worth of reserves. If China declared a missile closure zone near Taiwan’s main LNG port or used diplomatic pressure to halt shipments, the country could lose power in less than a week. Layer in cyberattacks on banks, energy systems and communications networks, and it would become a full-scale campaign.

What’s even more alarming is that China has already begun targeting U.S. infrastructure. Operation Volt Typhoon was a Chinese campaign involving malware inserted into critical American systems in Guam, Hawaii and possibly the West Coast. As Adm. Montgomery told me, “If they had done this with backpacks and explosives, we’d be at war. But in cyberspace, we gave them a hat tip.”

He believes the U.S. needs to be far more assertive in cyberspace. This doesn’t necessarily mean launching cyberattacks, but it does mean showing that we can. “Deterrence by demonstration” is the phrase he used. Proving that we have capable, effective responses to such attacks can potentially be enough to deter escalation.

We also discussed Taiwan’s role in the global tech economy. Around 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips are manufactured in Taiwan. This kind of concentration makes Taiwan a critical asset not just for the U.S. but also for Europe, Asia and beyond. As Adm. Montgomery said, Taiwan didn’t plan it that way, but it now finds itself at the center of global supply chains and strategy.

China isn’t focused solely on Taiwan. Its navy is expanding rapidly. China’s cyber tools are becoming more sophisticated, and its ambitions are growing. However, there are reasons to be encouraged. Adm. Montgomery said countries such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines are stepping up to the plate. Taiwan is making serious investments in its defense. Here in the U.S., we’re finally starting to recognize the scale of this challenge.

As Adm. Montgomery told me, China’s goal isn’t to fight and win; it’s to win without fighting at all. If we want to prevent this outcome, we need to be ready economically, digitally and militarily to counter China’s cybereconomic warfare.