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Deep divisions over future of Ukraine’s Donbas stand in the way of Trump’s peace deal

The Kremlin made clear Sunday that Ukraine has a right to exist, but only if it agrees to “let people go” from the country’s Donbas region, which Russia wants as part of any peace deal.

President Trump said in a letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that any agreement must protect Kyiv’s “sovereignty.” And European Union leaders believe the West would be walking into a trap if it supports ceding any Ukrainian land to Moscow.

Finding a way to bridge those seemingly irreconcilable positions looks to be the only way Mr. Trump can achieve his goal of ending the RussiaUkraine war. Top administration officials argue that such an outcome is still possible, and they say that the president’s aggressive diplomatic push — including his recent meetings with both Mr. Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin — is having an impact.

“We’re engaging in this diplomatic process in good faith,” Vice President J.D. Vance told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program on Sunday. “We are trying to negotiate as much as we can with both the Russians and the Ukrainians to find a middle ground to stop the killing.”

Mr. Vance stressed that the U.S. “has a lot of cards left to play” to pressure Moscow into a peace deal with Ukraine, including new economic sanctions and secondary tariffs that target Russia’s oil exports and the countries that buy that fuel, mainly China and India.

The Trump administration has other options. The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the Pentagon has been blocking Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied long-range missiles.

Mr. Trump could step in and allow such strikes by Ukraine on Russian soil, which could put significantly more pressure on the Kremlin to make a deal.

There were signs Sunday that Ukraine could still hit targets inside Russia through other means. Russia said that a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at a nuclear power plant in Russia’s western Kursk region, though Ukrainian officials did not immediately take responsibility for the assault.

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in social media posts that a transformer at the site had caught fire “due to military activity.” It said that radiation levels in the area were at normal levels.

Defining Ukrainian ’sovereignty’

Mr. Zelenskyy marked the 34th anniversary of his country’s independence Sunday with a public address in Kyiv.

“We are building a Ukraine that will have enough strength and power to live in security and peace,” he said. “What our future will be is up to us alone.”

Mr. Trump has been pushing hard to get Mr. Zelenskyy and Mr. Putin to meet face to face, and for their two nations to reach a peace deal, without having to impose new oil sanctions or encourage even more bloodshed through Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.

But deep divisions over the future of Ukraine’s strategically vital Donbas region remain a significant, seemingly fundamental roadblock to a deal. The region, made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in eastern Ukraine, has been an epicenter of the conflict for years. Portions of the region are occupied by Russian forces, but other areas of the Donbas are home to some of Ukraine’s most heavily guarded cities and fortified defensive positions.

Some battlefield analysts say that giving up all or part of the Donbas as part of any deal would be a major blunder by both Ukraine and the West.

But the Kremlin has given no indications it will budge on the issue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told NBC News in an interview that aired Sunday that not only is there no planned meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy, but that Russia only recognizes Ukraine’s right to exist if Kyiv relinquishes control over the Donbas and its people.

Ukraine has the right to exist, provided it must let people go,” Mr. Lavrov said, referring to those “in Donbas, in Crimea.”

Russia has occupied Crimea, still technically a part of Ukraine, since 2014.

Mr. Vance said that Russia has conceded that “Ukraine will have territorial integrity after the war,” though such territorial integrity, from Russia’s perspective, seemingly wouldn’t include the Donbas.

Mr. Trump also referenced those concepts in a letter to Mr. Zelenskyy over the weekend marking Ukraine’s independence day.

“The people of Ukraine have an unbreakable spirit, and your country’s courage inspires many. As you mark this important day, know the United States respects your fight, honors your sacrifices, and believes in your future as an independent nation,’ Mr. Trump said in the letter. “Now is the moment to bring an end to the senseless killing. The United States supports a negotiated settlement that leads to a durable, lasting peace that ends the bloodshed and safeguards Ukraine’s sovereignty and dignity. God bless Ukraine.”

Mr. Trump has ruled out sending U.S. ground troops to Ukraine, but some European nations are open to contributing forces as part of a coalition to enforce a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Still, some key European leaders say it would be a mistake to support a deal that gives Ukrainian land to Russia.

The European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, told the BBC late last week that giving up Ukrainian land is “a trap that Putin wants us to walk into.”

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