Russia launched a massive drone assault on Ukraine overnight Tuesday as analysts warn that the coordinated Russian attacks could become harder for Ukraine’s air defenses to fend off.
The latest Russian attack, in which 728 drones targeted the city of Lutsk and other areas, came against the backdrop of President Trump’s public frustration with his Russian counterpart and his ramping up of U.S. weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
Specialists say Mr. Trump’s reversal of a Pentagon decision to halt some military aid to Kyiv — deliveries of the defensive weapons have resumed, according to reports — highlights a philosophical divide within the administration over how much direct assistance to provide.
Analysts say the next several weeks could be key to determining the broader long-term trajectory of the conflict, with U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine — or the lack thereof — as a key factor in the equation.
“The loss of Western military support, an effective change in Russian tactics or technology, or a significant Ukrainian mistake could let Russian forces make significant advances and set conditions for serious Ukrainian losses,” said George Barros, who leads both the Russia and geospatial intelligence teams at the Institute for the Study of War.
“Continued or enhanced Western support, on the other hand, coupled with ongoing improvements in Ukrainian force generation, organization, technology, and systems integration could let Ukraine stop Russian advances and expand the limited counterattacks they have begun to conduct into a more significant series of counteroffensives,” Mr. Barros told The Washington Times.
SEE ALSO: As aid resumes, Trump says he doesn’t know who paused U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine
This week’s Russian air offensive, which also included 13 missiles fired at Ukrainian cities, involved the largest number of drones launched in a single night during the war, which began in February 2022.
Lutsk took the brunt of the assault, with Russian defense officials claiming that the attacks targeted Ukrainian airfields.
Lutsk is home to several airfields that the Ukrainian military uses and it serves as an important hub for the delivery of Western military aid.
City officials reported no casualties from the attacks but said the drones and missiles significantly damaged infrastructure. But the attacks struck at least 10 other provinces in Ukraine, seriously wounding two people in Kyiv and killing one person in the Khmelnytskyi region.
Zelenskyy’s call
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the assault is more reason for Western leaders to slap harsh sanctions on Russia.
SEE ALSO: Russia launches over 700 drones at Ukraine as Trump promises more aid
His pointed comments in a Telegram post Wednesday appeared to serve as a public message to the U.S. and Mr. Trump specifically, particularly his plea for Washington to finally target Russia’s lucrative oil industry with new sanctions or secondary tariffs on nations that buy Russian energy.
“Sanctions are needed — painful sanctions against oil, which has been pumping money into Moscow’s war machine for over three years of war,” Mr. Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “Secondary sanctions against those who buy this oil and sponsor the killings. The partners know how to put pressure on Russia so that it will be forced to think about ending the war, not new strikes.”
Analysts say that the relentless Russian drone assaults in recent weeks have become even more effective, indicating that the Russian military has evolved and improved its tactics from the early days of the war.
“Ukrainian sources report that Russian drone operators and robotic systems have become more efficient, a trend that is particularly troubling for Ukrainian defensive formations in the country’s east,” Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, wrote in a battlefield assessment Wednesday.
The importance of U.S. aid
The White House seems to recognize that reality despite apparent tension inside the administration about what should be the U.S. posture toward Ukraine.
Mr. Trump this week escalated his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of deception and not dealing in good faith when it comes to ending the war in Ukraine.
Mr. Trump has pushed hard for a Ukraine–Russia ceasefire, but there is no deal on the horizon. He increasingly blames the Kremlin for that.
“We get a lot of b———- thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Mr. Trump said during a White House Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. “He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
The comments were Mr. Trump’s harshest rebuke of Mr. Putin since returning to office. Mr. Trump has been skeptical of U.S. aid to Ukraine and earlier this year publicly berated Mr. Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, accusing him of being ungrateful.
But now Mr. Trump acknowledges that Kyiv desperately needs U.S. weapons.
“We have to,” Mr. Trump said. “They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now. We’re going to send some more weapons — defensive weapons primarily.”
The president’s harsh rhetoric toward Mr. Putin came after an announcement Monday that the U.S. would resume munitions shipments to Ukraine to help it push back Russian invaders.
The administration last week paused the delivery of some air defense interceptors and precision-guided bombs and missiles to Ukraine, citing Pentagon concerns that America’s own stockpiles were dwindling.
When pressed about who ordered the munitions shipment pause, Mr. Trump refused to say whether he knew in advance about the plan.
“I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?” he said in response to a question about whether he ordered the pause.
Some specialists say it’s clear there are “restrainers” inside the administration skeptical of continuing open-ended aid to Ukraine. The moves that the U.S. makes over the next few days and weeks, analysts say, will be crucial.
“Next, look to see how the administration moves on future weapons sales to Ukraine,” said John E. Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
“It is now time for the United States to sell Ukraine more air defense and other weapons that would underscore for Putin that he will fail in his efforts to take more Ukrainian land,” Mr. Herbst wrote in an analysis this week.
Ukraine retaliated to the most recent Russian attack with its own drone assault overnight, targeting several Russian border regions. According to local authorities, the Ukrainian drone attacks killed three people in the Kursk border region, including a child.
Recently, Moscow has intensified its offensive operations in Ukraine, both on the ground and in the sky. Last week, Russia launched 550 drones and 11 missiles at key ground targets in Ukraine, at the time the largest drone assault of the war.
On June 29, Russia launched 477 drones and 60 missiles at Ukrainian targets. Ukrainian authorities testified that at least five people were killed as a result of the strikes, and a F-16 warplane crashed after attempting to shoot down a target.
Russia has also expanded its ground offensive, launching new attacks in the border regions. Specifically, Russian troops have reportedly made territorial gains in the Sumy and Donetsk regions.
However, some analysts maintain that Russia’s offensive push in Sumy will stall, with open-source intelligence suggesting that Kyiv’s forces have retaken key areas of the province.
• Jeff Mordock contributed to this article, which is based in part on wire service reports.
