In the 1800s, when feuds reached a certain point they were settled by pistol duel.
Each man was armed with an identical smoothbore black powder pistol.
Common dueling distance was 20-30 feet. Duelists either fired simultaneously, or flipped a coin to determine who shot first.
Sometimes the man who fired first would intentionally miss. This was known as deloping . It was a gesture of peace.
For example, perhaps the men had been drinking the night before and things had gotten out of hand. In their stupor, they had set a duel for the following morning.
The men show up to the duel bleary-eyed and nauseous. Sometimes the shoot-out would be called off. Apologies issued, and perhaps a hair-of-the-dog toast to take the edge off.
But other times, the men’s pride would get in the way. They felt honor needed to be satisfied.
Deloping came into play when one or both men didn’t want to go through with the contest. It was a way to salvage pride by going through the motions, but with the hopes of avoiding mortal conflict.
Occasionally, one man would delope (miss intentionally), but the other man would aim true and win the duel.
For example, in the famous duel between Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr, some historians believe that Hamilton intentionally missed with his first shot, while Burr aimed true and won. In a letter written before the contest, Hamilton wrote that he was “resolved, if it pleases God, to reserve and throw away my first fire.”
Hamilton died the following day from his gunshot wound.
The point of all this is that honor plays a big role in all conflicts, from personal feuds to global wars.
Honor and pride are clearly playing a role in the Israel vs Iran conflict. Neither side wants to lose face. But realistically, neither country is prepared for a prolonged conflict.
A Teetering Ceasefire
When President Trump first announced the ceasefire, it appeared we may be seeing a deloping situation occur.
Both sides would launch their final performative attacks, then call off hostilities. To satisfy their honor, at least for a while.
But early this morning Trump spoke to reporters, and was clearly frustrated with both sides. The President stated that, “Iran violated the ceasefire, but Israel violated it too…. I’m not happy with Israel… I’m not happy with Iran either.”
Then the President posted the following messages on Truth Social this morning:
It appears that Israel went a bit overboard with its last-minute attacks before the ceasefire took effect. In the dueling metaphor, Iran deloped, while Israel aimed true.
Will the ceasefire hold? It seems likely, at least for a while. Israel is running low on missile defense interceptors and has major damage throughout the homeland to deal with, as detailed by Byron King this morning.
Iran, meanwhile, has major damage to deal with at home as well. Its air defenses and leadership ranks have been decimated. It also has a substantial mess to clean up at multiple nuclear and petroleum production sites.
We won’t know the true extent of the destruction for a while, as the privacy curtains have been pulled up over sensitive areas. Even satellite images are being withheld from certain sites.
What is clear is that if the conflict ends today, it will take years of rebuilding for each country to reach their starting point.
President Trump’s Tightrope
I do not envy the President’s task. He is clearly uncomfortable with the current situation. He may have believed that after the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, the conflict would be cleanly over. This may or may not be the case.
Yet it’s unclear if Iran’s nuclear program was actually dealt a fatal blow. This is the big sticking point. It appears that Iran still has at least 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which is a few short steps away from being weapons-grade. Iranian officials claim they already have backup nuclear facilities in place.
What is Iran’s incentive to give up their nuclear aspirations now? If anything, they have a much stronger incentive to push forward and build offensive nuclear capabilities. It is true that Israel assassinated key Iranian nuclear scientists, but it’s almost certain they will be replaced in short order.
Perhaps Trump will be able to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program. But it remains unclear whether Israeli and American actions against Iran have curtailed their nuclear capabilities and ambitions. It’s worth noting that ZeroHedge now reports Iran Vows Uninterrupted Nuclear Enrichment.
At this point a ground war seems completely off the table. Israel doesn’t have the forces to do it alone, and the U.S. currently lacks the necessary munitions due to ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Moreover, a big part of Trump’s base remains dead set against getting entangled in another Middle East quagmire. Needless to say, the majority of Democrats are in that boat as well.
Was Honor Satisfied?
Both sides accomplished enough that they can claim victory. That may allow a narrow window for peace. A temporary peace, at least.
But the larger issue remains: will Iran go on to develop nuclear weapons? After this conflict, the chances may actually be greater than they were before. If they do, the conflict would evolve into a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) scenario.
So what happens to Trump’s proclamation that Iran will, no matter what, not be allowed to develop a bomb? That remains to be seen. My suspicion is that Israel and America will continue to seek covert regime change in Iran, but so far those efforts have proved futile.
We should also remember that the first major U.S. attack against Iraqi forces in Kuwait was launched in 1991. Over the next decade-plus, America fought a quiet air battle to disable Iraq’s air defenses. It was not until 2003, after the air defenses were dismantled, that the ground invasion of Iraq was launched.
America and Israel could be attempting to cook up something similar for Iran.
Let’s watch.
