One week ago, Muslim separatists crossed the border from Pakistan into India’s idyllic Pahalgam area in the disputed Kashmir region. They ruthlessly and methodically executed 26 people – some of the honeymooners, others with family they hadn’t seen in ages, and all of them for the sin of being Hindu.
India blamed Pakistan for the attack immediately, as that country has never made a concerted attempt to clamp down on the separatist Islamicist terror groups roaming the Kashmir region, preying on Hindus who live there or are visiting.
India blamed Pakistan on Wednesday for a militant attack that killed 26 people in Indian-held Kashmir, downgrading diplomatic ties and suspending a crucial water-sharing treaty that has withstood two wars between the nuclear-armed rivals.
The spray of gunfire at tourists Tuesday in a scenic, mountain-ringed valley was the worst assault in years targeting civilians in the restive region that is claimed by both countries. The unidentified gunmen also wounded 17 other people.
…India describes militancy in Kashmir as Pakistan-backed terrorism. Pakistan denies this, and many Muslim Kashmiris consider the militants to be part of a home-grown freedom struggle.
In a series of retaliatory actions, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government announced harsh measures against Pakistan on the afternoon of the attack. The most immediate and severe was the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960.
1. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 held in abeyance immediately
2. The Attari Integrated Checkposts are closed immediately – those who have already crossed over have until 1 May to return to Pakistan
3. Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under certain exemption visas. Any such visas previously issued are considered cancelled and any Pakistani nationals in India on those visas have 48 hours to get out
4. Pakistani defense officials in the High Commission in New Delhi are declared persona non grata. They have a week to get out
5. India will be withdrawing its defense officials from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad
…The most immediate of these to impact Pakistan is the Indus Water Treaty abeyance.
…The boldest move has been to suspend the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan indefinitely. With this, the water supply from the Indus river and its distributaries – the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Satluj will be stopped. These rivers are the water supply for Pakistan and impacts tens of millions of people in that country.
Some of the results of turning off the tap to Pakistan are already visible by satellite, while others are still showing flow heading south, attributed to snow melting and the runoff.
India Pakistan water wars:
Satellite images show the consequences of the Indus River Treaty in abeyance – Chenab River near Sialkot runs nearly DRY.
Flow has drastically diminished. pic.twitter.com/1hTv4ZqX8o
— Indo-Pacific News – Geo-Politics & Defense (@IndoPac_Info) April 30, 2025
Not helping the situation were rumors that the Turks had sent six planeloads of weapons to Islamabad, which the Turkish government tried to quickly snuff.
WASN’T US
Amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions and the looming threat of war, the arrival of a Turkish C-130E military transport aircraft in Pakistan has triggered speculation that one of Islamabad’s closest allies might have made an urgent arms delivery to the country.
Multiple reports circulating on social media claimed that a Turkish C-130E Hercules landed in Karachi, allegedly to deliver military equipment. The reports were based on flight-tracking data published by open-source intelligence (OSINT) trackers. The aircraft was seen flying over the Arabian Sea on April 28.
…However, the claims were refuted by the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications. “A cargo plane from Türkiye landed in Pakistan for refueling. It then continued on its route. Speculative news made outside of the statements of authorized persons and institutions should not be relied upon.”
Yesterday, Pakistan began floating the story that they had ‘credible intelligence’ that the Indians planned to attack them within the next few days.
Pakistan’s information minister says that the country has “credible intelligence” that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Attaullah Tarar’s comments come after India accused Pakistan of supporting militants behind an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists last week. Islamabad rejects the allegations.
Tarar said that India intends to use the attack as a “false pretext” for a strike and that “any such military adventurism by India would be responded to assuredly and decisively”.
The BBC has contacted the Indian foreign ministry for comment.
The attack near the tourist town of Pahalgam was the deadliest attack on civilians in two decades in the disputed territory. Both India and Pakistan claim the region and have fought two wars over it.
Troops from both sides have traded intermittent small-arms fire across the border in recent days.
Pakistan said Wednesday it had “credible intelligence” that India is planning to attack it within days, and vowed to respond “very strongly,” as soldiers exchanged gunfire along borders and Pakistanis heeded New Delhi’s orders to leave the country… https://t.co/UYLNEQSBCi
— Washington Times Local (@WashTimesLocal) April 30, 2025
Even as Pakistani and Indian troops kept up sporadic gunfire exchanges over the Kashmir border, known as the ‘Line of Control.’
“The report clarified the significance of firing across the international border: “While the International Border is a boundary separating India and Pakistan, the Line of Control is a ceasefire line agreed upon during bilateral attempts to keep the peace. Firing across the… https://t.co/jjwewJTSC9
— Alberto Miguel Fernandez (@AlbertoMiguelF5) April 30, 2025
…Firing across the international border is very rare and particularly provocative…”
There have been a fair number of those incendiary clashes.
A great map from @detresfa_ showing the active sectors of clashes between the militaries of India & Pakistan along the LoC (Line of Control) and also on the international border, following the terror strike in Pahalgam, India. (Left side map).
On the right side, Pakistan issues… pic.twitter.com/QfiCWWLVPt
— Indo-Pacific News – Geo-Politics & Defense (@IndoPac_Info) April 30, 2025
Ratcheting up tensions even further, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian flights the day before yesterday.
Pakistan shoots itself in the foot — closes airspace to Indian flights, but ends up losing millions in fees while its economy crumbles@mollygambhir gets you this report pic.twitter.com/J15vKO3mVl
— WION (@WIONews) April 28, 2025
Naturally, the Indians followed suit shortly thereafter.
🚨 BREAKING NEWS
India has issued a NOTAM, effectively SHUTTING DOWN its AIRSPACE for Pakistan-registered, operated, or leased aircraft, airlines, and military flights. pic.twitter.com/v5gqemLnhs
— Megh Updates 🚨™ (@MeghUpdates) April 30, 2025
Our State Department has been running their fannies off, working the phones and contacts. They are trying to get everyone talking, and to back down before tempers flare and something really bad happens between the two nuclear-armed adversaries.
The US is pushing to calm tensions between India and Pakistan as signs mount of an imminent clash after militants last week killed dozens of tourists on the Indian-controlled side of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to speak with the foreign ministers of both countries in a bid to de-escalate the situation, US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told reporters in Washington on Tuesday. Rubio is also encouraging other nations to reach out as well, she added.
“We of course are encouraging all parties to work together for a responsible solution,” Bruce said. “The world is watching this.”
Ties between the nuclear-armed nations have rapidly deteriorated in the wake of the attack, which India has called an act of terrorism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has accused Pakistan of involvement and vowed to punish those responsible. Pakistan has denied any links to the attacks and warned of retaliation if India takes military action.
Rubio’s had the parties on the phone with him. That’s a start.
…On Sunday, Washington said it was in touch with the nuclear-armed Asian neighbors at multiple levels while urging them to work towards what it called a “responsible solution.”
As there have been recent reports of movement on both sides…
According to India Today, Pakistan has forward-deployed air defense systems, electronic warfare assets, and radar installations in the Sialkot sector.
These deployments are aimed at closely monitoring Indian troop movements and enhancing early warning capabilities to detect and… pic.twitter.com/XnsjC76fwK
— GMI (@Global_Mil_Info) April 30, 2025
…getting this thing calmed STAT is in everyone’s best interest.
