To boot or not to boot? That is the question four weeks into the war with Iran, at least from the American media, but also prompted by Donald Trump’s demand to Iran. And if Trump does order boots on the ground, what are the options?
The Wall Street Journal reported last night that Trump may order an armed incursion into Iran to extract the regime’s highly enriched uranium (HEU). The aerial war has achieved most of its other objectives in destroying the regime’s military-industrial power, but its HEU stores represent an acute danger no matter what:
President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer.
Trump hasn’t made a decision on whether to give the order, the officials said, adding that he is considering the danger to U.S. troops. But the president remains generally open to the idea, according to the officials, because it could help accomplish his central goal of preventing Iran from ever making a nuclear weapon.
The president has also encouraged his advisers to press Iran to agree to surrender the material as a condition for ending the war, according to a person familiar with Trump’s thinking. Trump has been clear in conversations with political allies that the Iranians can’t keep the material, and he has discussed seizing it by force if Iran won’t give it up at the negotiating table.
“Complex and risky” doesn’t begin to cover it. The Iranians stored this material in redoubts that have significant defenses. Both the US and Israel have repeatedly attacked these facilities, which means any hostile move by the US to extract and move it would require heavy construction support, not to mention the ability to hold off Iran’s remaining infantry and armored assets. This would not be a snatch-and-grab mission like those that secured the arrest of Nicolas Maduro or the killing of Osama bin Laden. It would take days at least, perhaps weeks, during which American forces would eventually be surrounded and attacked while maintaining a defense deep in enemy territory.
The Pentagon has apparently drawn up plans for this operation, but as Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt pointed out, the Pentagon draws up all sorts of plans:
“It’s the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the commander-in-chief maximum optionality. It does not mean the president has made a decision,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. The Pentagon didn’t comment and a spokesman for U.S. Central Command declined to comment.
Several years back, the Pentagon had to issue a similar explanation when plans for the invasion of Canada leaked to the press. The Department of Defense/War games out scenarios like these constantly. It keeps war planners sharp, plus it ensures that the US does not get caught with its pants down if our security situation changes drastically.
This idea may be even more absurd than an invasion of Canada. It certainly would be much more dangerous, both to the men involved and to Trump politically as well. It would have a slim chance of success, high odds of significant casualties, and might result in forces being captured and used for leverage by the Iranian regime. An alternate scenario in which special forces penetrate these facilities to ensure the destruction of the HEU would have better odds for avoiding those complications, but not tremendously better, and Trump can’t afford to leave the HEU or dead American bodies behind.
The two best options for acquiring the HEU are regime change or a deal with this regime’s remnants that includes its transfer to the US. Trump understands that too, which may explain his new ultimatum earlier this morning on Truth Social:
The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
This is part pressure on the regime remnants and part political argument for the domestic audience. On the latter, Trump is taking time to emphasize that he’s trying to replace the current IRGC junta in Tehran with a kinder, gentler version, a la Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Well, maybe, but if he’s talking with Parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, it’s not likely to make much of a difference, given his long service at command levels within the IRGC before going into mullah-endorsed politics. Second, he’s reminding Americans that the Iranians have a lot of American blood on their hands over the last quarter-century, and it’s high time they pay for it.
The pressure on the regime remnants is obvious here. Trump has moved thousands of Marines and soldiers into the theater, clearly in anticipation of some ground incursion. At these levels, though, only the islands make sense as targets: Kharg, Lakar, and the Abu Masa group. Kharg is the most strategic, since capturing it would allow full US control over Iran’s oil sales and likely be the only leverage that would prompt the IRGC to cough up the HEU in exchange. Trump has now escalated the threat far beyond the capture of Kharg, however, by threatening to completely end Iran’s oil and energy production capacity for a generation unless they capitulate within the next few days.
That neatly avoids putting boots on the ground anywhere; it does, however, mean that the US and the Gulf states would have to fund reconstruction projects if and when a rational regime overthrows the IRGC. The Iranians know that the US and Israel would prefer preserving that infrastructure, but they also know that (a) Trump faces pressure to avoid putting boots on the ground, and (b) the US and Israel can deliver on that threat. Plus, they know that Trump has been holding Benjamin Netanyahu from doing this already, and that the good cop in the good cop/bad cop game has just run out of patience. Trump wants a deal, but he’s not afraid of destroying everything and letting the regime eat itself among the ruins, either.
This is Trump’s real ultimatum – to tell the “reasonable regime” that they had better take control right frickin’ now if they want to survive with any economic potential at all. The cost of that would be their HEU, limits on ballistic missiles, and an end to terrorism. The terms won’t change, Trump is making clear, so any parts of the regime that want to survive had better start taking Trump both literally and seriously.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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