The funniest thing about Kamala Harris is that she thinks she matters. She fancies herself a historic figure, still viable as a presidential candidate after her humiliating defeat in the 2024 presidential elections. But no one actually cares about her. People may still consider her a top contender for her party’s presidential nomination, but don’t be fooled: the former vice president, during one of the most incompetent administrations in history, riding on name recognition only gets you so far.
A new poll proves that. According to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, Harris has some genuinely brutal numbers. The survey of 5,019 registered California voters, conducted March 9 through 14, found just 9% chose Kamala as their first pick for the Democratic nomination. That’s it. Nine. In her home state. There’s no statistical magic or Venn diagram that salvages this for her.
Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom led the pack at 28%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg. When second-choice votes get folded in, Newsom climbs to 42% while Harris manages only 20%.
Big ouch.
The Democratic base appears ready to flip the page entirely from Harris. Even among African American voters — a constituency Kamala has long counted on — Newsom leads her 49% to 37%. His strongest support comes from older voters, Latino voters, and men. Kamala is getting crushed on every front in a state that was supposed to be friendly territory.
The New York Post has more.
IGS’ co-director, G. Cristina Mora, said Newsom’s more aggressive stance on Trump is paying off.
“The results seem to suggest that Newsom’s more aggressive stance vis-à-vis President Trump, particularly through social media, appears to be resonating with Democratic voters in his home state,” she said.
“Though Californians may hold mixed views on his gubernatorial tenure overall, they do see him as the strongest counter to Trump and MAGA candidates.”
That said, Newsom has real vulnerabilities of his own. His job approval as governor sits at just 48%, down from 51% in August, while his disapproval has climbed 5 points. Berkeley IGS Poll director Mark DiCamillo noted that drawing support from only about a quarter of California voters is cause for concern for Newsom’s national ambitions.
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Still, Newsom leading Kamala by 19 points is huge. Sure, he’s the current governor, but she was the vice president. Even the voters of her home state weren’t impressed. Of course, they’re not exactly impressed by Newsom either, but he can work with shaky approval ratings. Kamala is dealing with something harder to fix: her record on the national stage. Her tenure as vice president was a disaster, and she spent more than a billion dollars to lose every single swing state to President Donald Trump.
The 2028 Democratic primary will start to take shape soon after November. If Kamala intends to have a future in public office, the 2028 election is her shot. Yet even the voters who know her best are done with her. Read between the lines, and it’s obvious she’s finished. Whether she accepts that reality is a separate question, of course, but stick a fork in her; she’s done.
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