By José Niño
The March 3, 2026 Texas primaries delivered results that should alarm Republican strategists preparing for November. Hawkish incumbents lost to populist challengers. Democrats posted their highest midterm primary turnout since 1970. And the combination of an unpopular war and rising gas prices threatens to turn what should be a favorable midterm environment into a potential disaster for the Grand Old Party.
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The most striking upset came in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District, where four-term incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost to state Rep. Steve Toth by roughly 15 points. Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL who had positioned himself as a rising Republican star, was the only Texas House Republican seeking reelection without a Trump endorsement. His past criticism of efforts to challenge the 2020 election results and his work on a bipartisan immigration bill alienated primary voters. Toth, who secured endorsements from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and popular podcaster Tucker Carlson, framed the race as a referendum on the Republican direction and won decisively.
But the primary results tell only part of the story. The larger challenge facing Republicans involves public opinion on the Iran war and its economic consequences. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 27% of Americans approved of the strikes against Iran, while 43% disapproved. Among independents, the numbers are even worse for Republicans, with 44% disapproving versus just 19% approving.
A CNN poll painted an even bleaker picture, with 59% of Americans disapproving of the initial decision to strike Iran. Strong disapproval was roughly double strong approval. A striking 60% said Trump lacks a clear plan for the situation, and 62% said he should seek congressional authorization before further military action. Across all polls, 56% of Americans believe Trump is “too willing to use military force,” including 23% of Republicans and 60% of independents.
The economic dimension makes the political problem even more acute. Prior to the strikes, the national average for regular gasoline was $2.98 per gallon. As of early March, prices had already jumped to approximately $3.20 per gallon. Analysts project far worse to come. Goldman Sachs warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for five weeks, prices could approach $4 per gallon. JPMorgan Chase projects that a prolonged conflict could push prices between four and five dollars. Deutsche Bank warns that a full strait blockade could send prices above five dollars.
About 45% of Americans, including a substantial share of Republicans and independents, said they would become less supportive of the campaign against Iran if fuel prices continue to rise.
Democrats seized on the political environment. Over 2.2 million votes were cast in the Democratic Senate primary, the highest midterm primary turnout in over 50 years. For the first time since 2008, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in primary voting statewide. During the 11-day early voting period alone, 1.33 million Democrats cast ballots compared to 1.1 million Republicans. “The Cook Political Report,” and allegedly unbiased political analysis website, moved Texas’s Senate race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” placing it alongside Maine, Iowa, and Ohio as potentially competitive seats.
Against this backdrop, the emergence of Brandon Herrera as the presumptive Republican nominee in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District offers a glimpse of a different path. Herrera, a gun rights YouTuber with over 4 million subscribers, became the nominee after scandal forced incumbent Tony Gonzales to withdraw. But Herrera represents more than a default winner. He articulates a position of fiscal nationalism that distinguishes him from the interventionist consensus dominating both parties.
At a supporter event in Brewster County, Herrera stated:
I don’t think we should be paying for all of Israel’s stuff all the time. … We shouldn’t be spending billions of dollars on any country that isn’t the United States.
On foreign aid, Herrera has been equally direct:
We can’t claim to be “America first” while pushing spending bills like the most recent foreign aid package that gave almost $100 billion to every country except the United States.
When asked if that included ending aid to Israel specifically, he reaffirmed his position.
The aforementioned CNN poll revealed a significant division within the Republican Party itself. Republicans who identify with the MAGA movement are 30 points more likely to strongly endorse the military action compared to non-MAGA Republicans.
Even among Republicans broadly, 38% oppose sending ground troops while only 27% support it. This internal fracture suggests that candidates who articulate skepticism of foreign intervention may find more support than party leadership assumes.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s February special election victory, in which she flipped a state Senate seat Trump carried by 17 points, “a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas.” The warning came before the primary results amplified the message. Longtime Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) himself warned that internal divisions could be the “kiss of death” for the party in November.
The Texas primaries demonstrated what America-first conservatives have argued since 2016. The Republican base rejected interventionism when they elected Donald Trump on a platform of ending endless wars, and they will reject it again if the party continues down the path of neoconservative foreign policy that has brought nothing but debt, death, and political disaster.
