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The U.S. attack on Iran has shaken the political calculus surrounding the 2028 Republican presidential race, injecting new uncertainty into what had been a settled assumption that Vice President J.D. Vance would lead the ticket.
Vance, who holds a commanding lead in early 2028 GOP polling, has taken a notably muted stance since Operation Epic Fury began on Feb. 28. In a speech in North Carolina on Friday, he offered only brief remarks, describing the Iran campaign as “a military operation” to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Behind the scenes, President Trump acknowledged that Vance was “maybe less enthusiastic” about the conflict.
That ambivalence has created an opening for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has emerged as one of the war’s most prominent public defenders and a key behind-the-scenes tactician. Trump has lavished praise on Rubio, telling a summit of Latin American leaders that Rubio would “go down as the best secretary of state in history.” At a private Mar-a-Lago donor event, Trump asked attendees which of the two men he should back in 2028 — and donors cheered louder for Rubio.
The contrast between the two men reflects deeper tensions within the MAGA coalition. Vance built his political identity in part on opposition to overseas military entanglements, and his subdued support for the Iran strikes has drawn scrutiny from allies who worry he risks appearing inconsistent. Trump administration officials leaked to news outlets that Vance had been “skeptical” of launching the war — a claim that conflicted with earlier reports that he had advised Trump to strike Iran after Tehran crossed a red line on its weapons program. Vance’s office pushed back sharply, calling media reporting on his views inaccurate.
Rubio’s 2028 prospects have surged on prediction markets, with the federally regulated platform Kalshi placing his odds of winning the presidency at 18% as of March 12, just one point below Vance’s 19%. Public polling tells a different story: a McLaughlin and Associates survey taken March 4–9 showed Vance leading the GOP field at 36%, with Rubio at 10%, up from 4% in January.
Republican strategists say Vance’s hold on the base remains strong, and that only Trump himself could fundamentally alter the race.
Read more: Iran war jolts J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio’s jockeying for 2028
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