Many blue states have policies that are not exactly friendly to families and children.
Beyond constant threats to parental rights, high taxes and difficult business formation make it harder for young families to make ends meet in blue America.
But another advantage red states have over blue states is more affordable housing.
A new report from the Institute for Family Studies found that blue states are “losing kids” as 20-somethings move elsewhere.
While states that voted for President Donald Trump and states that cast their ballots for now-former Vice President Kamala Harris alike have growing shares of residents who are 60 or over, the latter are losing young people and children much faster.
The report said that between 2019 and 2024 — the “Great Sort” period after COVID — the blue state population of children between 0 and 9 decreased by 4.7 percent as the population of young adults between 20 and 29 likewise fell 4.4 percent.
Compare that to a 1.2 percent decline for young children and a 0.2 percent drop for young adults in red states over the same time horizon.
The Institute for Family Studies pointed to housing as a major cause for the trends.
“Using the median mortgage cost relative to median income as a rough proxy for affordability, we can see that states with cheaper housing tend to have better luck attracting or keeping parents of young children,” the conservative think tank described.
What happened to all the COVID babies?
Population-rich blue states, California, New York, Illinois, ended up with fewer married couples with young kids
Idaho, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and the District of Columbia ended the last half-decade with 10% more married… pic.twitter.com/Vv2tfy0SDz
— The Institute for Family Studies (@FamStudies) February 26, 2026
“The majority of these states are, politically, red.”
The report included a comparison between median mortgage as a share of median household income and the five-year changes in children under 6 years old.
Sure enough, the states with the lowest relative mortgage costs and the highest relative increases in numbers of young children tended to be red states.
There are some exceptions — such as Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma, which saw fewer kids even as their populations grew — but for the most part “blue states are expensive and losing families.”
The report reminded red states “to not rest on their laurels” by prioritizing affordability for families.
“Fertility and marriage rates are likely to continue to decline. For states that want to remain attractive to families, it will be vital to focus on keeping the fundamentals of good governance strong — making housing more affordable, attracting and creating solid job growth, and keeping an eye on the political center rather than veering to either extreme,” it said.
“The states that manage to do this the best will be the winners — especially once the COVID babies hit middle school.”
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