Donald Rumsfeld would call it a “known unknown” because the disconcerting truth is this: Nobody knows what percentage of illegal immigrants successfully crossed the border under President Biden.
The Biden administration claimed its “apprehension rate” was 78%. (Yeah, I’m rolling my eyes, too.) But obviously, that’s just a guess — because the illegals who successfully snuck in weren’t signing a guestbook. But even if the 78% apprehension rate was true, after over 10 million border encounters, it means millions of unvetted, unchecked illegal immigrants entered U.S. cities and neighborhoods.
And millions more were caught and released.
As the Heritage Foundation noted:
Under Biden policies, most “encounters” between illegal aliens and border officials result in the illegal alien being simply released into the U.S. For example, at present, over 80 percent of the hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens encountered each month on the southwest border by Custom and Border Protection appear to be released into the U.S. interior. The current policy is not so much “catch and release” as simply “greet and release”.
The “apprehension rate” question is relevant because — just between 2021 and 2024 — U.S. Border Patrol arrested 1,504 Iranian nationals. Remarkably, 729 were caught and released, allowed to roam freely within our country.
Alarmingly, 729 of them were released into the United States, often after scant vetting amid overwhelmed systems. This wasn’t mere oversight; policies such as expanded asylum loopholes and deportation reluctance effectively welcomed risks. In June 2025, ICE rounded up 11 Iranians illegally present in the country, including a former army sniper, a Revolutionary Guard member, and a Hezbollah affiliate — all of whom had slipped in during Biden’s tenure. Intelligence flagged 35 more Iranians plotting cartel-aided crossings that same month.
According to Fox News, during Biden’s presidency, there was a 25-fold increase in border encounters with Iranian nationals!
What explains this dramatic jump?
Well, it could be that the Biden administration was exceptionally savvy at catching Iranians: That’s why they stopped so many. (And now you’re rolling YOUR eyes.)
I mean, it’s at least theoretically possible. Right?
But it’s also possible that Iran knew our borders were defenseless and sent an influx of terrorist proxies to invade our country.
Because it certainly doesn’t sound like too many Iranian families were crossing the border. Not a lot of women made the trek. Statistically, 74% of Iranian illegal immigrants are male; most are single/unmarried.
As the Niskanen Center observed in June of 2025:
Colombian data shows that 96% of Iranians entered Colombian territory via Ecuador, with fewer than 1% arriving from Venezuela, despite visa-free access and direct Tehran-Caracas flights. Regional patterns indicate that most Iranians fly to São Paulo via Istanbul, then travel overland through Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and the Darién Gap before continuing through Central America to Mexico.
As a result, there are extensive monitoring and interdiction opportunities Iranian migrants face across multiple national jurisdictions. Since January 2022, CBP has recorded approximately 1,650 encounters with Iranian nationals at the southwest border—evidence of detection, not evasion.
So Fox News claimed there were 1,504 border encounters with Iranian nationals; the Niskanen Center claimed 1,650. What’s the real number?
Right: Nobody knows for sure — and that’s the problem!
Regardless, there was clearly an underground network in place to help Iranians evade U.S. security and illegally enter our country:
São Paulo is a hub for Iranian document forging networks, complicating efforts to track their movement across the region.
These forged passports—often mimicking Israeli documents—can serve dual purposes: enabling travel for genuine migrants while helping Iranian intelligence refine their tradecraft.
[…]
The Tri-Border Area (TBA) between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay–where Hezbollah maintains a known presence–could hypothetically aid Iranian movement.
Which means, if the Iranians were using fake passports, the number we caught-and-released could be exponentially greater.
It’s a life-and-death problem. One of the best ways to prepare yourself for your enemy’s next move is to put yourself in his shoes sandals: If you’re an Iranian mullah who believes in terrorism and considers America to be the “Great Satan,” what would be a logical, cost-effective tactic to terrorize American citizens?
Building a nuclear bomb costs billions. Iran’s conventional ballistic missiles cost millions. Its Shahed 136 drone costs between $20,000 and $50,000 — cheaper than most new cars.
Which means, there’s a dramatic price range between Iranian military tactics.
Additionally, Iran has vast institutional knowledge when it comes to building, funding, and secretly assisting terrorist proxies in foreign countries. Before the U.S.-Israeli invasion, Iran spent $16 billion annually on international terrorism.
So how much would it cost Iran to fund a team of sleeper cells in the United States?
Not much: They’d need money to rent a home, buy a van, and have food/supplies, but it would be far cheaper than a ballistic missile. Just one Ghadr missile costs $5 million.
For just $500,000, you could fund a cell of six terrorists, all living together, for an entire year — and have more than enough money to buy enough deadly weapons and explosives. None of ‘em would even need jobs.
Which means, for $5 million — the cost of one Ghadr missile — Iran could fund 10 separate sleeper cells, each stationed in a different part of our country.
We must stay vigilant: This is squarely within the mullah’s toolbox.
My PJ Media colleague, Eric Florack, raised an astute point in a Slack discussion a few days ago: In hindsight, thank God we preceded the Iran War with the biggest, most far-reaching crackdown on illegal immigration in American history.
In the first year of President Trump’s second term, a record 2.5 million illegal immigrants exited the country. How many of the 2.5 million were Iranian nationals?
Yup, you’ve got it: Nobody knows.
Perhaps it was coincidental; perhaps it was 100% deliberate. But either way, it could very well be that President Trump’s decision to crack down on illegals has already saved American lives.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First: It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battlelines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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