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Paxton vs. Cornyn runoff could decide more than a Senate seat — it may shape Texas GOP turnout

Some Republicans running for Congress in Texas this year say their party will see better turnout if Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, wins the Senate nomination.

The battle between Mr. Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn has been the biggest show of the primary season, with the incumbent coming in a surprising first place on Tuesday. The two men head to a runoff in May.

“Seen, Heard & Whispered” has learned of at least two Republicans running for U.S. House seats who think Mr. Paxton will drive their base voters to turn out more than Mr. Cornyn in November.

A state GOP consultant said Mr. Paxton has some unique crossover appeal to pro-organic parents, often Democrats, who are skeptical of the pharmaceutical and food industries.

A few crunchy influencers, while not endorsing, have shared Mr. Paxton’s work on removing artificial dyes from food and investigating COVID-19 vaccines on their social media accounts.

Democrats on Tuesday picked state Rep. James Talarico, who bested U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a race that saw extraordinary enthusiasm. Even though the state trends red, more than 238,000 Democrats cast ballots in their primary than GOP voters did.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm of the Senate GOP, says Mr. Cornyn, a 24-year Capitol Hill veteran, is a safer match-up against Mr. Talarico than Mr. Paxton, who is more polarizing.

The political prognosticators at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics agree. They said as long as Mr. Cornyn remains a viable option, they rate the race as a “likely Republican” victory.

President Trump this week said he’s looking to head off months of divisive campaigning. He said when he makes an endorsement, the other candidate should drop out.

“We have an easy-to-beat, Radical Left Opponent, and we have to TOTALLY FOCUS on putting him away, quickly and decisively!” the president wrote on social media.

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