In case you missed it this week, the Wall Street Journal came out with an “exclusive,” stating that the Donald Trump administration’s goal is regime change in Cuba by the end of the year.
It claims that, “emboldened” by the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the administration is looking for people within the current Cuban “government” who might be willing to turn on the Commies and negotiate or facilitate a deal that would lead to a transition in power. In other words, those who see the writing on the wall — that without Maduro’s regime sending them oil, Cuba is a failed state.
The article was written based on information from unnamed “people familiar with the matter,” so I wouldn’t take it as gospel. I watched for four or five months as the mainstream media came up with all sorts of stories about what was about to happen in Venezuela, most of which never turned out to be true — either someone from the Trump administration, usually Marco Rubio, would dispel them or time would prove them false — so I’m always skeptical when anything comes from anonymous sources.
That said, this one is plausible. Both Trump and Rubio have sent very public warnings to the Cuban regime in the three weeks since Maduro’s capture. On Jan. 11, Trump posted on Truth Social: “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
“The people in control in Cuba have a choice to make,” Rubio said a couple of days before that from the White House. “They can either have a real country with a real economy where their people can prosper, or they can continue with their failing dictatorship that’s going to lead to systemic and societal collapse.”
On Friday, Politico dropped its own “exclusive,” that claims the Trump administration is weighing another option to force regime change in Cuba: imposing a total blockade on oil imports. Again, this information comes from anonymous sources, but I did see various members of Congress who are highly engaged with this topic repost the article on X to back it up, so that gives me a bit more confidence.
The Politico article claims that Rubio backs this move, but that Trump hasn’t signed off on it because “there are ongoing debates within the administration about whether it is even necessary to go that far.”
As I’ve written, Venezuela was Cuba’s main oil supplier. When we captured and arrested Maduro, that came to an end. It’s made do, sort of, so far by transferring reserves from ships anchored in the Bay of Matanzas and accepting “humanitarian oil” from Mexico. However, there have been reports this week that Mexico’s narco-president Claudia Sheinbaum is reconsidering being such a good friend to the Communist regime, as anxiety among her own administration grows about how the United States may retaliate if she continues. Either way, what she’s sending isn’t nearly enough to sustain the country. Russia sends a little here and there, but it’s far less than even Mexico.
There have also been reports that Cuba has turned to Africa for help, but literally as I’m writing this, I’m reading that the oil tanker that was headed to Havana from Togo has allegedly changed course and is headed for the Dominican Republic. Whether that’s a temporary change or the Trump administration stopped it remains to be seen. On Thursday, there were reports that the USS George H. W. Bush was stationed about 60 miles of Cuba’s coast, which may or may not be related.
The Politico article also points out that many Republicans in Congress support the a total blockade. It quotes Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) as saying: “There should be not a dime, no petroleum. Nothing should ever get to Cuba.” I’ve personally seen several members of Congress echo that statement on social media in recent weeks.
It also says that some within the Trump administration are hesitant due to the potential for a humanitarian crisis, but the reality is that the country already has one. Daily blackouts are the norm. Clean water is scarce, as are food and medicine. Garbage lines the streets because there’s no one to pick it up. Disease is rampant. People are fleeing in droves. The economy is worse than it’s been in decades, with a GDP that has dropped 11 to 15% since 2020, depending on whom you ask, and falling.
So will nearly 70 years of Communism in Cuba finally come to an end by December, as the Wall Street Journal suggests? It’s highly likely, and at this rate, it could come much sooner.
Related: For the Cuban Regime, He’s a Supervillain — But in the U.S. He’s the Quarterback
Several “experts” point out that the country has withstood years of sanctions and embargoes, and that numerous presidents before Trump have tried, confident that they knew the one single trick to make it finally happen.
But something about this time feels different. As far as I know, no other president during those seven decades has pursued a revival of the Monroe Doctrine as fervently and as expansively as Trump has, and will continue to do, according to his official National Security Policy.
There’s also the Marco Rubio factor. We joke about it being personal. The Cuban regime has accused him of making it personal for years. And it is personal. He wrote in his book An American Son that he told his grandfather that one day he would “lead an army of exiles to overthrow Fidel Castro and become president of a free Cuba.” There’s a real possibility that the secretary of state’s political career will be over in three years, so I have no idea that he will push for this as defining part of legacy.
And finally, there’s the shift in the region. I’ve written about this so much that I won’t rehash it, but the Latin American left is a dying breed right now. Socialism, organized crime, and corruption are out. Free markets, conservative governments, and law and order are in. There’s no telling how long that wave will last, but if there was ever a time to drum up regional support for a new day in Cuba, this is it.
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