In March of last year, I wrote an article titled “Silver’s 3x Upside”.
Silver was trading at $34.33 at the time.
I expected the move to $100 to take until 2028, maybe even longer.
Instead, silver shifted into vertical mode during the second half of 2025. It’s currently trading at $111.69 per ounce, after briefly reaching $117.
Lately, even I’ve been questioning whether it’s time to take some profits.
But after long consideration, my plan to hold another 3-5 years remains intact.
Here’s why…
Parabolic Moves
Let’s take a quick look at the 1-year silver chart.
Source: Kitco.com
The move from $30 to $111 happened fast. Even for a volatile asset like silver.
A significant correction almost always follows these types of parabolic moves. I’ve been waiting for a 25% drop for a while now, but it hasn’t arrived.
Eventually it will. So we should be mentally prepared for it. And if it somehow doesn’t happen, great.
If you don’t want to deal with that nearly inevitable correction, by all means take some profits. If you’ve made life-changing money, it also probably makes sense to take at least partial gains.
But one big reason I haven’t sold is that timing this crazy market is rather difficult. And once the next wave of inflation begins, even more capital should flow into the precious metals space. There will be an epic exodus from fiat money.
And in terms of silver miners, they still look priced for $60/oz bullion. In a silver bull market, miners should outperform the metal by a multiple of 2 or so. So far they’re barely keeping up with the price of bullion.
As long as the price of silver doesn’t collapse, miners will still be churning out cash flow and reporting blowout earnings.
So my plan remains the same: sit on my hands.
Core Thesis: Unchanged
The primary reason many of us own precious metal investments is as a hedge against inflation, monetary debasement, and general chaos.
And in the case of silver, there’s also industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, which continues to boom.
Nothing about the core thesis has changed.
The world is still approaching a major debt crisis. And central banks’ response is easy to predict: lower rates and money printing. Governments, especially the U.S., will finance their overspending by printing money. Even the interest on our debt will be paid for with… more debt.
Eventually, stimulus checks will flow to help Americans deal with hard times. All paid for with freshly printed cash, which will flow directly into the economy (worsening inflation).
It’s a bit strange to me that silver and gold are running so strongly before the next wave of inflation has even begun, but the world appears to be waking up to the scale of the debt problem (it’s about time).
A Permanent Re-Pricing?
I don’t think we’ll ever see silver below $60 again.
Silver was artificially cheap for a long time. I suspect this is due to the fact that so much of the “silver” traded has been paper contracts rather than physical bullion.
In Paradigm’s internal chat room earlier, our buddy Sean Ring of The Rude Awakening shared a chart showing silver in Shanghai, China trading at $127 per ounce.
That’s a whopping 17% over the U.S. (COMEX) price!
Our colleague Byron King weighed in on the difference in price in China vs. the West:
China does physical metal, so pays more for real stuff. The West does paper, and the trades almost never settle… Few are called onto the carpet to explain why there are no silver bars on the pallets in the warehouse.
What this tells me is that physical supply is NOT THERE… People are having fun trading paper… But “real” users — industrial buyers in China — need metal, and they will bid it up to get assured supply of actual elemental silver. Seems rather bullish to me… I think I’ll hang onto my silver for a while longer. And the silver mining space is destined for more $$ and higher share prices.
Byron has been in the precious metals space for decades. I really respect his opinion here, and it helped convince me to stick to the original plan.
China is becoming a primary driver when it comes to silver pricing. This makes sense, because the country uses roughly 50% of all industrial silver to make things like electric vehicles and solar panels.
Previously, the price was dominated by the COMEX in the U.S. and the LBMA in London.
Paper silver IOUs are no longer driving the price of silver. Physical demand is. That’s a very big deal.
So while this spike has tested long-term holders’ resolve, for now your editor plans to sit tight.
To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with taking profits after such a run. If you want to lock in some gains, go for it. Just consider leaving some on the table.
For now, miners look cheap, and physical is an insurance policy.
There will be corrections, of course. But over a longer time-frame, the best is yet to come.
